A Bullish Breakout Could Extend the Current Upside Momentum

Summary:

Local support at 0.8063 could offer optimal entry opportunities to join the bullish move; however, a strong downside rejection from this zone would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Buy USDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.80650

ENTRY

0.81740

TGT

0.80000

0.81270 +0.00118 +0.15%

Point

PENDING

0.80000

CLOSING

0.80650

ENTRY

0.81740

TGT

In Switzerland, trade data reveals a gradual loss of competitiveness across one of its most vital sectors. Since 2019, the country has surrendered market share in its primary export category, pharmaceutical products, recording double-digit percentage drops in select global markets. Although China has expanded its international footprint, most of the market share lost by Swiss exporters has been captured by other global competitors.

Meanwhile, comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Council member Petra Tschudin were interpreted by markets as dovish regarding monetary policy. In an interview with Finanz und Wirtschaft, Tschudin noted that if lowering interest rates below zero becomes necessary to keep inflation within the 0% to 2% target range over the medium term, the central bank remains prepared to act. These statements reinforced the perception that the SNB maintains a flexible posture, ready to intervene should economic conditions require it.

In the United States, expectations for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) gained traction following remarks by Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh emphasized that inflation remains well above the central bank's target and reiterated that interest rates remain the principal tool to restore price stability.

As a result, markets adjusted their forecasts for the September policy meeting, driving the U.S. dollar toward multi-week highs and triggering a sharp rise in Treasury yields, particularly across short-term maturities. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool prices in roughly a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that any military action against Iran would be limited. His remarks followed reports from Axios indicating that Trump and senior advisors were evaluating potential targeted strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Tehran from rebuilding radar and missile capabilities used to threaten maritime traffic.

However, Trump also noted that the Strait of Hormuz is currently "in very good shape" and highlighted that oil flows through this strategic route continue as normal, helping ease market concerns regarding potential disruptions to global energy supplies. A Bullish Breakout Could Extend the Current Upside Momentum_1

A Bullish Breakout Could Extend the Current Upside Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

USDCHF is on the verge of breaking above the descending trendline that originated on July 29 after reaching the 0.8208 level, which had generated lower highs. Price action is currently testing this trendline, and a sustained close above the 200-period moving average at 0.8094 could pave the way for an extended upward move toward the 0.8174 resistance target. For now, local support at 0.8063 could offer optimal entry opportunities to join the bullish move; however, a strong downside rejection from this zone would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Turning to the oscillators, the RSI recently reached 69, approaching overbought territory. However, the RSI has begun to cool off even as price holds near its highs, suggesting that buyers could mount another push. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish histogram that has lost some depth, but the signal lines remain firmly inside positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum could persist for longer.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8065

Target price: 0.8174

Stop loss: 0.8000

Validity: Sep 14, 2026 15:00:00

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