During the Asian session on Tuesday (November 28), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around 2015. Sales of new US homes fell more than expected in October, again indicating the US economy is gradually weaker. The market continued to trade an early Fed's rate cut, which sent the dollar index and US bond yields lower, boosting gold prices. Gold fluctuated by $18 yesterday in the range of $2000-$2018, but the trading opportunity came only after the release of the US data. After surging and then falling back to $2005 in the Asian session, gold prices rallied to the intraday high of $2018 in the US session. Investors who took the opportunity to go long perhaps could make some profits. Recently, the market has been trading weaker economic data and interest rate cuts, but we should know it's not the right time yet. In the United States, interest payments on bonds now account for about 10% of fiscal spending. To meet such high fiscal spending, large numbers of bonds would need to be issued. This will make the supply and demand continue to be out of balance. However, it's impossible for a sharp decrease in spending as next year is an election year. Thus, perhaps meeting the fiscal spending is the priority. While the current bond supply and demand imbalance has eased under speculation, it doesn't change materially. High-interest rates are likely to stay longer. Thus, we maintain the view that gold prices will fluctuate widely this year and the beginning of next year, and will seek to break through the second half of next year to hit new highs. At present, the gold price still hasn't effectively broken through the double-top resistance, so investors can try to go short with small positions.

Data: US annualized new home sales in October were 679,000, with an expectation of 723,000. The median price of new homes was $409,300, which was the lowest since August 2021, down 17.6% YoY. New home inventories rose for the third straight month in October to their highest level since January this year. US mortgage rates peaked at a multi-year peak of about 8% in October, and last week's Freddie Mac data showed that US 30-year term mortgage rates fell for the fourth consecutive week to 7.29%.

Today's focus is on the US FHFA home price index for September, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the FOMC members' speeches.

The gold price continued to strengthen on the last trading day, closing with a small bull candle, and fluctuating above the price center in the 4-hour chart. Currently, looking at the 1-hour and the daily charts, there is a bearish signal of negative divergence, which makes it difficult to maintain bullish during the day. Gold prices may have hour-level pullbacks, and then we will see if they can drive pullbacks in the daily chart. If the daily chart closes with a bearish candle, it basically announces the end of this wave of rallies. In the market ahead, investors can try to go short at high with small positions but should not chase the market. Today's reference trading range should be 1998-2018. Traders can buy low and sell high within the range.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 2018

Target Price: 1998

Stop Loss: 2023

Support: 2000.000/1985.000

Resistance: 2020.000/2032.000