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AUD Won't Rise Much Shortly Though Bullock Releases Hawkish Signal
Summary:
Today's speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock completely dispelled market illusions. However, considering that the market may correct the 'Black Monday' trend in the near future, AUD/USD won't rise much.
CLOSED
0.65707
ENTRY
0.65000
TGT
0.66190
SL
0.71297 -0.00492 -0.69%
121
Points
Loss
0.65000
TGT
0.65828
CLOSING
0.65707
ENTRY
0.66190
SL
Fundamentals
On Tuesday, the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged, and said that it "does not rule out any options". Governor Bullock has repeatedly opposed recent speculation about easing policies, stating that it is necessary to be sure that price growth is consistently returning to the central bank's target. At the same time, the RBA has raised its forecasts for core inflation and economic growth due to stronger demand.
However, the market remains unconvinced and has responded mildly to these remarks. Although the AUD/USD has generally risen since Tuesday, this is not driven by a hawkish stance from the RBA, but rather a technical adjustment following last week's sharp decline.
Today, RBA Governor Bullock reiterated his position in his speech:
While inflation is down from last year, services prices are elevated and sticky due to demand outpacing supply. The gap between total demand and total supply in the economy is larger than expected, causing ongoing inflation. Additionally, demand growth is expected to accelerate next year. Given this, the board doesn't expect inflation to be back in the target range until the end of 2025. This is why the Board explicitly considered at Tuesday's meeting whether another interest rate rise was required to ensure inflation continues to decline in a reasonable timeframe. While the decision was to keep rates unchanged, the Board will remain vigilant on inflation risks and will raise rates if necessary.
The comments completely dispelled the market's illusions that the RBA was about to cut rates. Not only will the RBA not cut rates any time soon, it may even raise them.
As a result, AUD/USD appreciated by 35 points shortly, and is still oscillating after a short-term rise. However, considering that the market may correct the 'Black Monday' trend in the near future, the USD is expected to rise and AUD/USD won't rise much.
Technical Analysis
In the 4H chart, AUD/USD is suppressed under the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (0.65707). If AUD/USD crosses above this level later, it will ascend further. Otherwise, it may drop and test 0.650. Moreover, AUD/USD may even reach the previous low.
In the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the kijun-sen and the tankan-sen are moving horizontally, and the gap between these two lines is large. As the current price stays above these two lines, AUD/USD will ascend and then decline later.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.65707
Target price: 0.650
Stop loss: 0.6619
Support: 0.650/0.646/0.640
Resistance: 0.65707/0.660/0.664
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