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AUD/USD Climbs as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise, Australian Inflation Surprises
Summary:
The Australian dollar climbed toward 0.6530 on Thursday as the US dollar sold off sharply, with markets growing confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
CLOSED
0.65370
ENTRY
0.66000
TGT
0.65000
SL
-- -- --
80
Points
Profit
0.65000
SL
0.65450
CLOSING
0.65370
ENTRY
0.66000
TGT
The Australian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart on Thursday, pushing toward the 0.6530 level in the European session, as the greenback came under broad selling pressure amid mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as September.
The move comes as traders position for a dovish turn by the Fed, with US economic data increasingly signaling that growth momentum is fading. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major peers, slipped toward 97.90. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets are now pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate at its September meeting.
That level of conviction suggests investors see the Fed pivoting away from its aggressive stance to prevent the economy from tipping into a deeper slowdown.
Fed Officials Shift Tone, Markets Grow BoldMarkets were bolstered further on Wednesday when New York Fed President John Williams hinted at the likelihood of rate reductions in the months ahead. While Williams stopped short of endorsing a September cut outright, his comments underscored growing concerns that the US economy’s slowdown warrants a more accommodative policy stance.
“The Fed doesn’t want to wait too long before supporting growth,” one trader in London said. “The risk is that if they wait, the slowdown could accelerate into something more difficult to contain.”
Still, Williams stressed that policymakers need more data before finalizing their decision. That puts Friday’s release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index firmly in focus. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and a softer print could strengthen the case for September easing.
The bullish tone in the Aussie was amplified by domestic economic developments. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that consumer prices rose more than expected in July. The Monthly CPI increased at an annual pace of 2.8%, outpacing forecasts of 2.3% and accelerating sharply from June’s 1.9%.
The upside surprise complicates the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets had been pricing in a possible rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, but the latest data challenges that assumption. Inflation above expectations suggests underlying price pressures remain sticky, potentially limiting the RBA’s ability to ease policy without risking a rebound in consumer prices.
Investors now find themselves weighing a dovish Fed against a potentially cautious RBA. That divergence in policy expectations is likely to keep the Aussie underpinned in the near term, particularly if US data continues to reinforce the need for Fed cuts.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has extended its bullish momentum, with price action firmly supported by short-term correctional waves. The pair recently broke above resistance at 0.6535, a level now serving as a key target for bulls.
Momentum indicators reinforce the upside bias. The pair trades comfortably above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), signaling dynamic support beneath current levels. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows sustained bullish momentum, though it has entered overbought territory—suggesting that while the trend remains positive, some short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out.
If the bullish momentum continues, the next upside levels to watch lie near 0.6560 and 0.6600. On the downside, initial support sits around 0.6480, followed by stronger buying interest near 0.6450.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY AUDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.6537
STOP LOSS: 0.6500
TAKE PROFIT: 0.6600
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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