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Bears Regain Control of the Market; Oil Prices May Fall Below $55.00
Summary:
Recent market attention has focused on the Ukraine peace talks. If an agreement is reached, WTI may continue its downward trend.
Trading
57.850
ENTRY
55.200
TGT
59.100
SL
57.522 +0.289 +0.50%
0
Point
Flat
55.200
TGT
CLOSING
57.850
ENTRY
59.100
SL
Fundamentals
In its latest assessment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its supply growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the estimated supply–demand gap, providing fundamental support to oil prices. Meanwhile, production in some OPEC+ countries has declined due to equipment failures and sanctions, further reducing available exports and heightening market sensitivity to supply tightness.
However, there are clear reasons for the poor performance this week: any positive signal from the Russia–Ukraine peace talks will quickly suppress risk premiums and reduce upward momentum in oil prices. In addition, enforcement actions by the U.S. and other nations against Venezuelan oil shipments have escalated recently (including reports of U.S. seizure of oil tankers). As a result, short-term concerns over potential supply disruptions are raised, and market volatility is magnified. In reality, when supply risks alternate with "positive" news from peace talks, WTI tends to oscillate within a narrow range as it repeatedly tests levels.
Inventory data and seasonal factors remain the usual anchors for price direction. According to the EIA's weekly report, sustained large draws (recent changes have been limited) are absent, which further reinforces downside pressure on prices.
Technical Analysis
Regarding the daily chart, recent WTI candlestick movements have remained under pressure below the 60-day moving average, failing to break through it effectively on multiple occasions. This has strengthened the bearish momentum in the market. Furthermore, after breaking below the November 25th low and the psychological level of $57.00, the downside of WTI is enlarged, adding the chance of testing the lower support between $56.00 and $55.00.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 57.80
Target price: 55.20
Stop loss: 59.10
Valid Until: December 26, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 56.00/55.00
Resistance: 58.01/58.86
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