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Breaking below 60.00 Is Merely the Beginning amid Medium-term Bearish Outlook
Summary:
Following a breach below support, WTI crude oil initiated a technical correction and rebound. However, yesterday's renewed bearish signals suggest the prior downtrend may continue.
Trading
60.970
ENTRY
56.500
TGT
62.600
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
56.500
TGT
CLOSING
60.970
ENTRY
62.600
SL
Fundamentals
OPEC+ recently announced a modest production increase in November, which the market interprets as a signal from member countries to replenish market share and counteract weakening demand, thereby exerting medium-term downward pressure on crude oil prices.
However, short-term supply dynamics are characterized by counterbalancing factors: on one hand, increased production expectations from U.S. shale producers and OPEC+ suggest a more ample global supply in the coming months; on the other hand, ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries and oil transportation infrastructure have been reported to potentially reduce Russian gasoline and fuel exports by approximately 20%, causing localized and short-term upward pressure on refined product prices and providing support to crude oil prices. Overall, the tension between supply-side "production optimism" and "localized disruptions" increases price sensitivity to the events.
The latest data on inventory levels and demand dynamics further intensifies this divergence. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report indicates a net increase in commercial crude oil inventories over the past week, totaling approximately 420 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery utilization rates remain elevated at around 92%, suggesting that refining capacity remains robust, but the accelerated flow of products and crude oil in and out of storage points to heightened throughput. Additionally, market data and industry research highlight a week-on-week increase of approximately 3.7 to 4.0 million barrels in U.S. commercial inventories, signaling a short-term oversupply that exerts downward pressure on oil prices.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, WTI crude oil experienced a breakdown and subsequent decline on October 2nd. Recently, it has initiated a technical correction and rebound; however, yesterday's rebound was rejected at the 20-day SMA, resulting in a bearish close. This indicates that in the short term, WTI is likely to continue its downward trend, with the primary support level at 60.00. A breach below this threshold could potentially open the path toward a further decline to 56.00.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 60.80
Target Price: 56.50
Stop Loss: 62.60
Valid Until: October 24, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 60.00, 56.00
Resistance: 61.50, 62.48
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A senior trader with rich trading experience, proficient in naked K trading, and has accumulated rich practical experience in the fields of stock market, foreign exchange and commodities. With deep market insight and excellent trading skills, he can seize opportunities in complex market environment and provide investors with accurate and effective trading strategies. With his superb analytical ability and rich market experience, he is committed to pursuing excellent performance in the global financial market.
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