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Bullish Momentum May Be Fading Opening the Door to a Downside Correction
Summary:
If the pair breaks lower from this formation, it could trigger a deeper pullback toward the 1.1396 area, where local support is likely to emerge.
Trading
1.17896
ENTRY
1.13960
TGT
1.19710
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
1.13960
TGT
CLOSING
1.17896
ENTRY
1.19710
SL
U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply to 231K in the week ending September 13, beating expectations of 240K and marking a steep drop from the prior week’s upwardly revised 264K. Continuing claims also eased to 1.920 million from 1.939 million, suggesting that labor market conditions remain resilient despite broader concerns over slowing growth.
At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index staged a remarkable rebound in September, jumping to 23.2 from August’s -0.3 and far surpassing market forecasts of 2.3. The data signaled stronger-than-expected activity in the manufacturing sector, potentially tempering fears of an economic slowdown.
Meanwhile, policymakers project headline PCE inflation to remain at 3% in 2025, with core PCE seen ending at 3.1% — unchanged from earlier forecasts. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, advanced 0.39% to 97.39, reflecting renewed dollar strength.
The Federal Reserve acknowledged mounting downside risks to the U.S. labor market, noting that while unemployment remains relatively low, it has edged slightly higher. The policy decision was not unanimous, as Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut — a stance some analysts had anticipated given the recent softening in economic data.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that labor demand has “softened,” while inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” He emphasized that the balance of risks has “shifted,” underscoring that monetary policy is well-positioned to adapt if needed, though he cautioned that the labor market is “not strong.”
Powell also pushed back against speculation about a larger rate cut, stating there was “no broad support for a 50 basis-point cut today,” and reaffirmed that the Fed is not in a rush to accelerate its easing cycle.
The Fed’s statement reiterated concerns over rising downside risks to employment, while noting that price pressures have firmed and remain “somewhat elevated.” According to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), most officials now expect the federal funds rate to end 2025 at 3.6%, GDP growth to slow to 1.6%, and unemployment to climb to 4.5%. Inflation is projected to close the year at 3%, with core PCE holding at 3.1%. Policymakers see inflation gradually returning to the 2% target by 2028.
U.S. Treasury yields fell following the Fed’s first rate cut since December of last year, triggering a rally in risk assets. Markets grew more confident that lower borrowing costs will help support the U.S. economy, especially the lagging labor market, pushing Treasury yields lower across the curve.
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) slowed to 0.1% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year in August, missing market expectations of 0.2% and 2.1%, respectively. Core inflation — more closely watched by policymakers — rose 0.3% on the month and 2.3% on the year, unchanged from July.
On Wednesday, the U.S. central bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point cut and signaled more easing ahead to support the weakening labor market. The dot plot projected two additional cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, though officials remained divided over the exact path of interest rates.
Meanwhile, political tensions are simmering in France, where the new prime minister is struggling to secure backing from the Socialist Party, while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintained a combative tone, calling on President Macron to either dissolve parliament or resign.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has been moving within a rising wedge pattern, a structure that often precedes downside reversals. If the pair breaks lower from this formation, it could trigger a deeper pullback toward the 1.1396 area, where local support is likely to emerge. The 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart are located at 1.1664 and 1.1562, respectively, and have been tracking price action along the lower boundary of the wedge. These levels may serve as the initial downside targets if selling pressure accelerates.
The RSI recently climbed to 72, placing the pair firmly in overbought territory. Traders will be closely watching for signs of a loss in bullish momentum, as these conditions often precede profit-taking and corrective moves lower. Conversely, if EUR/USD manages to break above the wedge and post a fresh local high, it could trigger another leg higher before any potential correction sets in.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1788
Target price: 1.1396
Stop loss: 1.1971
Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00
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