Bullish Trend May Continue to Dominate, Offering Buying Opportunities on Retracements

Summary:

After rejecting the 200-period average, price reclaimed ground above the 100-period mark; holding above these technical levels could spark a renewed bullish push.

Buy EURCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.93500

ENTRY

0.94310

TGT

0.92950

0.93722 +0.00041 +0.04%

Point

PENDING

0.92950

CLOSING

0.93500

ENTRY

0.94310

TGT

Minutes from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting held on July 22–23 show that policymakers keep the door open to further monetary tightening, despite deciding unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged. Governing Council members noted that at least one additional rate hike will likely be required unless the inflation outlook improves significantly, though they refrained from committing to a specific decision ahead of the September meeting.

According to the document, policymakers agreed that available economic data provided sufficient grounds to temporarily pause the tightening cycle in July. Headline inflation dropped to 2.8% year-over-year in June from 3.2% in May, while core inflation moderated to 2.4% from 2.6%. Furthermore, persistent underlying price pressures continued to display signs of slowing, evolving more favorably than previously anticipated.

However, energy prices remain a central concern for the ECB. The minutes highlight that the full impact of the recent rise in energy costs has not yet passed through to the economy, warning that the longer these prices stay elevated, the higher the risk of indirect and second-round inflationary effects. Risk factors identified include elevated natural gas prices, below-average seasonal gas storage levels in Europe, and ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting energy supply chains.

Consequently, the Governing Council continues to view inflation risks as tilted to the upside. This perspective aligns with market expectations, which currently price in nearly a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, according to estimates reflected by the ECB Watch tool.

In Switzerland, trade data reveals a gradual loss of competitiveness across one of its most vital sectors. Since 2019, the country has lost market share across its primary export category, pharmaceutical products, recording double-digit percentage drops in select markets. Although China has expanded its market presence, most of the share surrendered by Swiss exporters was absorbed by other international competitors.

Meanwhile, remarks from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Council member Petra Tschudin were interpreted by markets as dovish for monetary policy. In an interview with Finanz und Wirtschaft, Tschudin stated that if cutting interest rates below zero becomes necessary to keep inflation within the 0% to 2% target range over the medium term, the central bank remains prepared to act. These comments reinforced the view that the SNB maintains a flexible posture, ready to intervene if economic conditions demand it. Bullish Trend May Continue to Dominate, Offering Buying Opportunities on Retracements_1

Bullish Trend May Continue to Dominate, Offering Buying Opportunities on Retracements_1

Technical Analysis

EURCHF is trading in a clear upward trend, having reached a local peak at 0.9410 on August 14 before executing a downside correction back toward its ascending trendline. This pullback nearly tested the 200-period moving average at 0.9325, while the 100-period average sits at 0.9364. After rejecting the 200-period average, price reclaimed ground above the 100-period mark; holding above these technical levels could spark a renewed bullish push targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion at 0.9431.

Turning to the oscillators, the RSI currently sits at 48, positioning slightly below the neutral mark but retaining ample room to extend its upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a shallow bearish histogram, suggesting price could pull back further toward local support at 0.9350; however, with the signal lines remaining above the neutral threshold, the broader uptrend continues to dominate as the primary trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9350

Target price: 0.9431

Stop loss: 0.9295

Validity: Sep 07, 2026 15:00:00

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