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Buying on Pullbacks Remains the Primary Strategy; 203.00 Level May Be Retested after Consolidation
Summary:
The UK manufacturing PMI final reading came in at 49.7, with the budget likely to intensify structural pressures. Japan's manufacturing PMI final reading stood at 48.2, though market sentiment showed signs of improvement.
PENDING
199.300
ENTRY
207.000
TGT
197.000
SL
-- -- --
--
Point
PENDING
197.000
SL
CLOSING
199.300
ENTRY
207.000
TGT
Fundamentals
The UK manufacturing sector showed initial signs of recovery in October, with the final S&P Global PMI rising to 49.7 from 46.2 in September. However, this improvement remains fragile, as weak demand and inventory adjustments drove most of the growth rather than a sustained rebound in new orders.
October survey results were encouraging, but this rebound “may prove fleeting.” Output growth stemmed primarily from manufacturers clearing backlogs and allowing inventories to rise amid weak domestic and international demand.
The upcoming fiscal policy may further complicate the outlook. Many companies worry that the forthcoming budget could exacerbate the structural challenges left over from last year's policy tightening, dampening market confidence even as economic activity improves. Business optimism has risen to an eight-month high but remains below the long-term average.
Japan's manufacturing sector contracted again in October, with the final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipping slightly to 48.2 from September's 48.5. Weak demand—particularly in the automotive and semiconductor industries—led to the sharpest decline in new orders since early 2024, while exports to Asia, Europe, and the U.S. continued to fall.
Manufacturers are facing mounting cost pressures as rising input costs squeeze profit margins while demand continues to decline. To offset these pressures, many companies have raised their selling prices despite intense business competition.
Despite this, market sentiment has improved. The decline in production has been relatively limited, and many companies are expressing greater optimism about future output. Expectations for the successful launch of new products and the eventual easing of the impact from U.S. tariffs have both bolstered market confidence.
Technical Analysis
The GBPJPY maintains a neutral-to-bearish bias for the day. A break below the 200.54 level signals a potential pause in the upward momentum that began at 184.35, with the pair possibly testing the 200.00 threshold. Should it breach 197.91, the decline from the key structural support zone at 205.32 to 197.47 may resume.
In fact, we believe the downtrend will continue to the 198.85 level to fill the gap before resuming its upward trajectory. It is recommended to set the foundation.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 199.30
Target Price: 207.00
Stop Loss: 197.00
Valid Until: November 19, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 198.60, 197.85, 197.47
Resistance: 201.28, 202.85, 204.23
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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