Buying Opportunities Emerge Around Local Support and 200-Period Moving Average

Summary:

A divergence is also visible, as the RSI level sits much lower than in previous swings despite price action holding above earlier lows, signaling that downward momentum is rapidly losing steam.

Buy AUDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.56250

ENTRY

0.57290

TGT

0.55800

0.56875 +0.00189 +0.33%

Point

PENDING

0.55800

CLOSING

0.56250

ENTRY

0.57290

TGT

Australian inflation continued to moderate during June. According to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year, coming in below the 4.0% recorded in May as well as market forecasts. The slowing pace of price growth was interpreted by investors as a sign of reduced urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to continue tightening its monetary stance.

As a result, expectations for a short-term rate hike were scaled back sharply. According to Reuters, the implied probability of a rate increase at the August meeting dropped from near 21% to a range between 3% and 4% following the inflation release, placing downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

Nevertheless, monetary authorities maintained a relatively cautious tone. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter acknowledged that the CPI reading was somewhat weaker than expected, attributing much of the downside surprise to falling fuel prices. However, she emphasized that inflation remains above the 2%-3% target band, meaning the central bank must continue to closely monitor price pressures to prevent inflation expectations from settling at elevated levels.

Hunter also highlighted that the labor market continues to display strength. While acknowledging a gradual moderation in economic activity, she noted that employment conditions remain relatively tight and that job growth during the first half of the year showed considerable resilience. Additionally, she indicated that the deterioration in economic sentiment has not yet significantly fed through into household consumption.

In Switzerland, reports suggest the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is internally considering holding interest rates unchanged until late 2027, postponing any potential policy adjustments until 2028. Although the entity has not officially confirmed these reports, this perspective aligns with the prevailing view that Switzerland will maintain one of the most accommodative monetary stances among developed economies over coming years.

This scenario has helped limit the relative appeal of the Swiss franc during periods of rising global interest rates, particularly in an environment where higher oil prices have boosted expectations for tighter monetary policy in other economies, widening yield differentials against the Swiss currency.

On the other hand, minutes from the SNB's June monetary policy meeting showed that authorities consider current monetary conditions to remain appropriate, seeing no immediate need to modify existing policy. However, the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene if circumstances require.

The minutes also reflected that inflationary pressures have remained relatively stable, though geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened uncertainty and contributed to elevating short-term inflation expectations. Even so, medium-term expectations continue to show only moderate increases. On the corporate side, companies reported solid turnover growth during the second quarter and, despite the uncertain backdrop, maintain a constructive view on the economic outlook. Buying Opportunities Emerge Around Local Support and 200-Period Moving Average_1

Buying Opportunities Emerge Around Local Support and 200-Period Moving Average_1

Technical Analysis

AUDCHF is currently in a downward pullback after reaching a local high at 0.5729. This retracement has brought price action down to the 0.5644 level, very close to the 100-period moving average sitting at 0.5648, while the 200-period moving average lies at 0.5625. Although the 100-period moving average triggered a slight rejection from this area, price could drift down toward the 200-period moving average, which aligns closely with the support level at 0.5623. This zone could present a stronger wall for the upward impulse to resume, further supported by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level located nearby, adding weight to the prospect of the pullback reaching its end here.

Looking at the oscillators, the RSI briefly dropped to the 30 level, entering overbought territory. A divergence is also visible, as the RSI level sits much lower than in previous swings despite price action holding above earlier lows, signaling that downward momentum is rapidly losing steam. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bearish histogram that is starting to lose depth while the signal lines remain in negative territory, suggesting we could see one final leg lower before price re-establishes its upward momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5625

Target price: 0.5729

Stop loss: 0.5580

Validity: Aug 12, 2026 15:00:00

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