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Downside Target as Rate-Cut Bets Escalate
Summary:
Recently, Australia's employment data has shown weakness. Market expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have risen significantly, which may put downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD).
Trading
0.64995
ENTRY
0.61500
TGT
1.65600
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
0.61500
TGT
CLOSING
0.64995
ENTRY
1.65600
SL
Fundamentals
During the day, the fundamentals of AUDUSD are shaped by three intertwined themes: an unexpected weakening in Australia's labor market, growing market bets on an earlier RBA rate cut, and short-term fluctuations in risk appetite and commodity prices, which collectively determine its direction.
The latest Australian labor statistics indicate that the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September (up from 4.3% in August), the highest level since 2021. This suggests that employment growth is insufficient to absorb labor force expansion, prompting the market to sharply increase the probability of an RBA rate cut at its November meeting.
Additionally, the RBA acknowledged signs of easing financial conditions in its latest quarterly statement and financial stability review, while remaining cautious about the inflation trajectory. This implies that the pace of policy shift will be data-dependent and volatile. Any further weakening in data will quickly be interpreted by the market as a catalyst for rate cuts, thereby weighing on the Australian dollar.
Furthermore, overall risk appetite has rebounded during the day (driven by easing U.S.-China trade frictions and the resolution of some market risks), providing short-term support to commodity currencies. However, the suppressing effects of employment shocks and changes in interest rate spread expectations on the Australian dollar are more dominant by comparison.
Technical Analysis
From the daily chart perspective, the recent candlestick movement of AUDUSD presents a pattern of "high-range consolidation with a downward bias." As the MA20 crosses below the MA60 to form a death cross, the probability of a short-term decline in the exchange rate increases.
On the upside, a key resistance level for AUDUSD lies around 0.6530. If the exchange rate can break through this level with strong momentum and stabilize above it in the short term, it may continue to test 0.6700 upward. However, based on the current trend, the likelihood of breaking through this resistance level is low.
On the downside, a critical support level for AUDUSD is at 0.6410. If this level is breached, the downside space for the exchange rate will open up, with the potential to test the 0.6000 threshold downward.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 0.6500
Target Price: 0.6150
Stop Loss: 0.6560
Valid Until: November 3, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 0.6440/0.6410
Resistance: 0.6530/0.6700
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