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EUR/USD Extends Decline Below Key Support as U.S. Economic Resilience and Trade Hopes Bolster Dollar
Summary:
The EUR/USD pair weakened further to trade near 1.1230 during Friday’s Asian session, under pressure from robust U.S. labor data and renewed optimism around U.S. trade engagements.
Trading
1.12600
ENTRY
1.10000
TGT
1.14000
SL
1.12398 +0.00127 +0.11%
0
Point
Flat
1.10000
TGT
CLOSING
1.12600
ENTRY
1.14000
SL
The euro faced intensified selling pressure during Friday's early trading hours in Asia, with the EUR/USD pair sliding to around 1.1230 as investors favored the U.S. Dollar amid a backdrop of strong American economic data and evolving trade headlines. The pair had initially trimmed some of its daily losses, but the move ultimately failed to hold as sentiment tilted more decisively in favor of the greenback.
A key catalyst behind the dollar's outperformance was the latest release of U.S. jobless claims data, which surprised markets with a stronger-than-expected outcome. Initial jobless claims declined to 228,000 for the week ending May 3, down from the previous week’s unrevised reading of 241,000. While the four-week moving average nudged slightly higher to 226,000, the headline drop in weekly claims reinforced the narrative of a still-resilient labor market. Adding to this optimism was a decline in continuing jobless claims, which fell by 29,000 to 1.879 million, suggesting that Americans are still finding jobs relatively quickly, despite a murky global economic backdrop.
The strength of the U.S. economy was not the only factor drawing investor attention. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump added a layer of intrigue by announcing what he described as a “major” trade deal with the United Kingdom. Despite the headline-grabbing language, financial markets reacted cautiously. A 10% tariff on select goods remains in place, which tempered enthusiasm and left traders wary of calling this a genuine turning point in the broader trade landscape. Nonetheless, the announcement injected a dose of optimism into dollar sentiment, especially as the United States also prepares for preliminary trade discussions with China this weekend in Switzerland.
However, both Washington and Beijing appear to be keeping expectations in check. Trump’s rhetoric has remained combative, underscored by the recent appointment of a new U.S. envoy to Beijing. The U.S. President reiterated his administration's intention to limit tariff exemptions, stating explicitly that they are “not looking for so many exemptions.” This suggests that any progress made in the upcoming talks will likely be incremental at best, with neither side eager to compromise too quickly.
Across the Atlantic, the euro is dealing with its own challenges. The single currency has struggled under the weight of increasingly dovish expectations from the European Central Bank. Policymakers have been sounding more cautious about the Eurozone’s growth outlook, even as they maintain the official line that inflation is expected to sustainably reach the 2% target by year-end. Despite this confidence, markets are now actively pricing in the possibility of an interest rate cut as soon as the ECB’s June meeting. That growing policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve — the former leaning toward easing while the latter remains data-dependent and broadly steady — is exerting persistent downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the euro’s decline is becoming more entrenched. The pair has broken below the key 1.1260 support level, a move that significantly weakens the short-term bullish structure and reinforces the prevailing bearish correction. This breach marks the breakdown of the most recent higher low at 1.1264, a level that had served as a crucial line of defense for euro bulls. The daily close below that threshold is widely viewed as a negative signal, confirming a shift in trend direction from bullish to bearish on the daily chart.
Further compounding the euro’s troubles is the pair’s position relative to its 50-day exponential moving average, which it remains firmly beneath. The Relative Strength Index is also indicating continued weakness. While the RSI is currently situated in oversold territory, the lack of any sustained rebound suggests that positive momentum is not building.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL EURUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1260
STOP LOSS: 1.1400
TAKE PROFIT: 1.1000
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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