Further Downside Could Emerge as USDCHF Buyers Lose Momentum

Summary:

This divergence suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, potentially leaving buyers with less room to sustain the recovery and allowing sellers to regain control.

Sell USDCHF

EXP

Trading

0.82297

ENTRY

0.81460

TGT

0.83400

0.82482 +0.00066 +0.08%

Point

Flat

0.81460

TGT

CLOSING

0.82297

ENTRY

0.83400

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to maintain its policy rate at 0%, with the threshold for an interest rate increase remaining relatively high as inflation stays within the central bank's price stability range of 0% to 2%. Nevertheless, demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and political instability in France could provide additional support for the Swiss franc against other major currencies, regardless of the SNB's current monetary policy stance.

SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin recently stated that the economic outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty. However, he ruled out interest rate increases in the near term, pointing out that inflation remains comfortably within the central bank's 0%–2% price stability range. His comments suggest that the current inflation environment does not warrant an immediate adjustment to monetary policy, even as uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions and energy prices continues to influence the outlook. This position indicates that the SNB remains focused on its domestic inflation objectives rather than responding immediately to external risks.

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, according to the preliminary estimate released on Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This represented an acceleration from the 2.2% growth recorded in the second quarter and exceeded market expectations of 3.2%, indicating that economic activity remained stronger than anticipated during the period.

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP during the third quarter was primarily supported by higher investment, consumer spending, and government expenditure. However, these contributions were partially offset by a decline in exports. Imports, which are subtracted from the GDP calculation, also increased during the period. Overall, the report points to continued resilience in the US economy, with domestic demand providing support despite some weakness in external trade.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased to 3.1% year over year, in line with market expectations. Although the reading did not exceed forecasts, inflation remains above the central bank's target, suggesting that the Fed still has work to do before achieving its price stability mandate.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged within the 3.75%–4.00% range at its October monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refrained from providing specific guidance on the future policy outlook but acknowledged that the central bank had not yet achieved price stability. "We are working on it," Warsh stated, reinforcing the Fed's continued focus on bringing inflation under control. Further Downside Could Emerge as USDCHF Buyers Lose Momentum_1

Further Downside Could Emerge as USDCHF Buyers Lose Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

USDCHF faced renewed selling pressure after failing to establish a new higher high, with the recovery reaching only 0.8312, close to the 100- and 200-period moving averages located at 0.8281 and 0.8275, respectively. Although the pair briefly recovered these levels, it subsequently broke below the support area at 0.8261, suggesting that bearish pressure could expand further. If selling momentum continues to build, the pair could extend its decline toward the local support level at 0.8146.

Looking at the oscillators, the RSI recently reached 68, a level similar to one recorded during a previous advance when the price was trading higher. This divergence suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, potentially leaving buyers with less room to sustain the recovery and allowing sellers to regain control. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing a bearish histogram that is beginning to gain depth, while its signal lines remain only slightly above the neutral level. A move below this threshold appears increasingly likely, and if it materializes, both oscillators would become aligned with the bearish scenario, providing further support for a continuation of the downward move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8261

Target price: 0.8146

Stop loss: 0.8340

Validity: Nov 10, 2026 15:00:00

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