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GBP/USD Tests 1.3200 Support: Can Sterling Rebound From the Bearish Extreme?
Summary:
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3200, with 1.3180–1.3200 acting as a major support zone after ten consecutive sessions repeatedly testing the 1.3200 floor....
CLOSED
1.32000
ENTRY
1.32500
TGT
1.31750
SL
1.34017 +0.00030 +0.02%
500
Points
Profit
1.31750
SL
1.32504
CLOSING
1.32000
ENTRY
1.32500
TGT
Overview
GBP/USD has reached an important technical decision zone around 1.3200. The pair has fallen sharply from the 1.3675 August high and has repeatedly tested 1.3200 since September 24 without producing a sustained breakdown. FXStreet identifies 1.3200 as the floor of a ten-session range, while Continuum Economics places stronger support at 1.3180 and the next major downside level at 1.3140.
The fundamental backdrop is mixed. The US dollar remains strong because Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year yield recently reaching 5.345%, while the Fed's September minutes reinforced concerns about inflation and kept expectations of a December hike firmly alive. This limits the probability of an immediate GBP/USD trend reversal.
The UK side, however, provides an important counterweight. Markets increasingly expect the Bank of England to raise rates in November, with Reuters reporting an approximately 81% probability. That policy divergence gives sterling a potential recovery catalyst if the dollar's current yield advantage begins to fade.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment remains bearish overall, with the latest technical dashboard classifying GBP/USD as Strong Sell. RSI is around 34.5, while Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold and CCI is approximately -251, showing that downside momentum has become stretched.
This creates an asymmetric M15 setup at 1.3200. Sellers have repeatedly failed to convert the support into a decisive breakdown, while oversold conditions increase the probability of short covering. FXStreet's current bias also leans long while 1.3200 holds, with 1.3250 as the first recovery objective and 1.3300 as the next.
The main risk is a genuine breakdown rather than another false break. A sustained move below 1.3180 would expose 1.3140, which is close to the June yearly low at 1.3164. Therefore, the BUY is based on support absorption and momentum exhaustion, not on confirmation that the broader bearish trend has ended.
Technical Analysis
Using Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), Ichimoku (9,26,52) and Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15, 1.3200 is positioned at the lower edge of the recent consolidation. The preferred setup is an M15 rejection around 1.3180–1.3200 followed by a return inside the lower Bollinger Band and movement toward the middle band.
With Ichimoku (9,26,52), the structure remains bearish while price is below the Kijun-sen and cloud. The BUY becomes stronger after a higher low around 1.3190–1.3200 followed by a Kijun reclaim. A move above 1.3250 would provide stronger confirmation that short-term control is shifting toward buyers.
For Stochastic (5,3,3), a bullish crossover from the oversold area is the preferred trigger. The first resistance is 1.3250, followed by 1.3273–1.3300, where recent rallies have repeatedly encountered supply. A decisive M15 close below 1.3180 would invalidate the rebound setup.
Trade Recommendation
Entry: 1.3200
Take Profit: 1.3250
Stop Loss: 1.3175
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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