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Gold at $4,000 Crossroads: Breakout or Pullback?
Summary:
Senior analyst Kelvin Wong notes that the USD index's sustained strength is indeed exerting near-term pressure on gold, while a temporary tapering of safe-haven flows has also diluted the metal's immediate upside momentum.
Trading
3997.95
ENTRY
4300.00
TGT
3750.00
SL
3942.64 -58.59 -1.46%
0
Point
Flat
3750.00
SL
CLOSING
3997.95
ENTRY
4300.00
TGT
Fundamentals
Gold has clawed back part of its intraday losses, yet follow-through buying remains tepid. The metal still trades below the $4,000 psychological threshold. A mild rebound in global risk appetite is drawing some dip-buying into the safe-haven asset. However, tail-winds from U.S. shutdown risk, persistent geopolitical jitters and trade-related uncertainty continue to underpin prices. At the same time, a modest retreat in the USD from its early-August peak is providing additional cover. However, the Fed's hawkish narrative is likely to cap any deeper USD correction and, by extension, limit upside in the non-yielding bullion. Besides, the recent range-bound price action is viewed as a bear-flag consolidation, reinforcing the case for an extension of the sharp retracement from October's record highs.
Today's spotlight falls on Governor Michelle Bowman's scheduled remarks. Although the FOMC delivered its second rate cut of 2024 last week, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another reduction this year is "not a fait accompli." Markets have repriced the policy path on the back of officials' hawkish push-back, weighing on gold and sending prices lower.
At its October meeting the FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. The market now prices a 70% probability of a further 25 bp cut at the December gathering and implies a cumulative 82 bp of easing through end-2026, taking the mid-point from the current 3.88% to 3.06%. However, Monday's latest print showed the U.S. manufacturing sector lost momentum last month, a development that could weigh on the US dollar and provide a tail-wind for USD-denominated commodities.
ISM data released Monday showed the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October from September's 49.1, missing the consensus forecast of 49.5. Traders are now zeroing in on Wednesday's October ADP employment report for any read-through on the likelihood of an additional Fed cut this year. A sub-par print would likely underpin safe-haven assets such as gold.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, gold is oscillating within a 3960–4030 range. The MACD fast-slow line pair has retracted to the zero axis. A fresh golden cross would tilt odds toward an up-move, while a death cross would favor further weakness. Resistance sits at the prior swing high of 4045 and the round-number 4100 zone. RSI at 48 reflects a wait-and-see tone.
On the daily timeframe, MACD has printed a death cross and the histogram is still negative, implying the pull-back toward the zero line is incomplete. RSI at 50 shows balanced sentiment. A sustained close back above the EMA12 would open a retest of the platform resistance around 4133.
In conclusion, traders are recommended to mainly take long positions at lows.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3998
Target Price: 4300
Stop Loss: 3750
Support: 3900/3800/3600
Resistance: 4380/4500/5000
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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