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Gold Faces Resistance at the Head and Shoulders Top Pattern. Exercise Patience before Going Long as Short-term Correction Is Ongoing
Summary:
Gold prices continued to decline on Thursday after falling below US$3,300 on Wednesday. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and rising bond yields, which partially offset market concerns about escalating trade tensions.
Trading
3314.58
ENTRY
3389.00
TGT
3275.00
SL
3335.25 +11.44 +0.34%
0
Point
Flat
3275.00
SL
CLOSING
3314.58
ENTRY
3389.00
TGT
Fundamentals
U.S. President Trump has denied further delays to the August 1 tariff increases, announcing more aggressive measures. These include a 50% tariff on copper imports, a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% tariff on BRICS nations' goods.
A neutral outlook on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve is another key factor weighing on gold prices. Last week's strong U.S. jobs report eased concerns about an economic slowdown, reducing expectations for upcoming monetary easing.
New tariffs may exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's scope for future rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields is also pressuring gold prices, as investors have already factored in the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 48 basis points in 2025.
MARKET WATCH: Given the current economic climate, the global landscape is shifting from a U.S.-led order to a multi-polar world. This transition is expected to generate persistent inflationary pressures, elevated interest rates, a weaker US dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets over the next five to ten years.
Since the pandemic, the U.S. core inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for five years. Increased defense spending and tariff policies under the Trump administration are likely to keep inflation above the Fed's target for the remainder of this decade, potentially driving up gold prices.
Investors are awaiting the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes later today for further insights into the central bank's policy direction.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices have declined since the beginning of the week due to macroeconomic factors. The price action has broken down from a 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, instead of continuing the larger uptrend, and has broken lower via a 1-hour head and shoulders top pattern, forming a short-term downtrend.
The market is currently dominated by a 1-hour head and shoulders top pattern, indicating that the downward trend is not yet complete. The downside target is below US$3280; therefore, long positions should be approached cautiously, with a focus on strategic positioning.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3275
Target Price: 3389
Stop Loss: 3235
Valid Until: July 24, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 3279, 3273, 3252
Resistance: 3308, 3332, 3346
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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