Gold Rejected at $4,090: Is the M15 Trend Ready for Another Bearish Leg?

Summary:

XAU/USD is trading around $4,085–4,095 after failing to build on last week's recovery. Gold remains caught between safe-haven demand and renewed confidence in the U.S. dollar following recent U.S. economic data...

Sell XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

4090.00

ENTRY

4015.00

TGT

4145.00

4054.79 +11.93 +0.30%

Point

PENDING

4015.00

TGT

CLOSING

4090.00

ENTRY

4145.00

Market Overview

Gold entered the new week with reduced momentum after recovering from the post-FOMC decline. Although the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, policymakers continue emphasizing that inflation has not yet been fully contained. As a result, Treasury yields remain elevated relative to recent months, limiting upside potential for non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and continued central bank purchases are preventing aggressive selling, keeping bullion well supported above the psychological $4,000 level.

The current price action suggests the market is transitioning from directional movement into a battle between macro fundamentals and technical resistance. Buyers have successfully defended major support over the past several sessions, but each rally toward $4,090–4,110 has attracted renewed selling pressure. Until a stronger macro catalyst emerges, gold is likely to remain highly sensitive to U.S. dollar movements and interest-rate expectations.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment has become increasingly balanced after the strong rebound seen late last week. Institutional investors continue maintaining strategic exposure to gold because of geopolitical risks, but short-term traders are becoming more willing to realize profits near resistance. Trading volume has also moderated, reflecting a wait-and-see approach before the next major U.S. economic releases.

Market positioning suggests buyers remain active on dips, but momentum traders are reluctant to chase prices above $4,090 without confirmation. This creates an environment where rallies into resistance are increasingly vulnerable to intraday reversals.

Technical Analysis

Gold Rejected at $4,090: Is the M15 Trend Ready for Another Bearish Leg?_1

On the M15 timeframe, Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) have started flattening after the recent recovery, while price continues struggling to establish acceptance above the upper band near $4,090. This reflects fading bullish momentum and increases the probability of a corrective decline.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) shows price remaining above the Kumo, but the Tenkan-sen has begun flattening and is converging toward the Kijun-sen, indicating weakening buying momentum. The narrowing spread between these lines suggests upside strength is fading, while the cloud ahead is becoming flatter, signaling reduced trend conviction.

The Stochastic (5,3,3) is rolling over from overbought territory with a bearish crossover, indicating that buying pressure is losing strength. Immediate resistance is located at $4,110, followed by $4,145, while initial support is found at $4,040, with stronger support near $4,000. Unless buyers secure a decisive breakout above $4,110, the M15 technical structure favors a corrective move lower toward the middle and lower Bollinger Bands.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 4090

Take Profit: 4015

Stop Loss: 4145

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