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Gold Remains Bearish; A Rebound Toward $4,300 Could Be Followed by Another Selloff
Summary:
Gold extended its decline during Thursday's European session, slipping below $4,250 and remaining under pressure. While easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have helped limit losses, the broad-based strength of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift has continued to weigh heavily on bullion.
Trading
4226.85
ENTRY
3975.00
TGT
4335.00
SL
4204.16 -5.00 -0.12%
0
Point
Flat
3975.00
TGT
CLOSING
4226.85
ENTRY
4335.00
SL
Fundamentals
The Federal Reserve concluded its closely watched policy meeting on Wednesday, marking the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. As widely expected, the Fed left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the accompanying statement and distinctly hawkish tone dealt a significant blow to gold prices.
The Fed not only removed its previous language suggesting the possibility of further monetary easing but also signaled that policymakers are now leaning toward additional tightening. The latest dot plot projects the federal funds rate to reach 3.8% by the end of this year, well above the 3.4% forecast published in March.
The shift in policy expectations triggered a swift market reaction. Interest rate futures are now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. Treasury yields surged, driving the US Dollar Index sharply higher. Rising real yields and a stronger dollar have significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, reinforcing the bearish fundamental outlook.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold remains firmly within a bearish daily trend. After breaking below $4,250 during Thursday's session, the metal entered an accelerated downside phase. Given the speed of the recent decline, however, short-term technical indicators suggest oversold conditions may trigger a corrective rebound.
On the upside, gold could stage a technical recovery toward the $4,300 resistance zone as markets gradually digest the Fed's hawkish stance. Nevertheless, this area is expected to attract fresh selling pressure due to strong medium-term moving-average resistance. After consolidating around that region, gold is likely to resume its broader downtrend.
On the downside, if the rebound fails, gold could revisit and break below the recent low near $4,250, opening the door for a decline toward the key medium-term support levels at $4,200 and $4,150. As long as the US dollar remains strong, selling into rallies is expected to remain the market's preferred strategy.
Trading Recommendation
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry: 4290
Target: 3975
Stop Loss: 4335
Valid Until: July 17, 2026, 23:55
Support: 4240, 4218, 4169
Resistance: 4273, 4300, 4329
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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