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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
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Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
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Has the Trend Reversed?
Summary:
Crude oil has currently entered a stage of long-short confrontation. Geopolitical risks and a loose supply-demand situation have created a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The market is focusing on the production decision at the OPEC+ meeting on September 7.
PENDING
65.850
ENTRY
60.600
TGT
67.200
SL
61.652 -1.358 -2.16%
--
Point
PENDING
60.600
TGT
CLOSING
65.850
ENTRY
67.200
SL
Fundamentals
As of the European trading session today, the price of WTI crude oil is trading around 65.6 d/b. The market is in a fierce confrontation between supply concerns brought about by geopolitical risks and the expectation of a loose supply-demand fundamental situation, resulting in a high-level volatile pattern for oil prices.
Geopolitical conflicts are the core factor supporting oil prices. Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have led to the shutdown of about 17% of Russia's refining capacity, equivalent to a processing capacity of about 1.1 million barrels per day. This has intensified the market's concerns about a tightening global supply and provided a significant geopolitical risk premium for oil prices. In addition, the US Treasury Department has announced new sanctions on Iran's oil shipping network. Meanwhile, the US has imposed additional tariffs on India due to its continuous purchase of Russian crude oil. These measures have further brought uncertainty to the supply chain and provided support for oil prices from a geopolitical perspective.
However, the supply-demand fundamentals of crude oil have not tightened synchronously. Instead, there are some signs of weakness. A key bearish signal is that the contango (monthly spread) of Brent crude oil futures is weakening, which usually indicates a relatively loose actual supply-demand relationship in the spot market. The core pressure comes from OPEC+. In order to compete for market share, it has decided to accelerate the pace of production increase, planning to further increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This marks the complete lifting of the voluntary production cuts since November 2023. On the demand side, there is a seasonal weakening. The US summer driving season has ended, and the refinery utilization rate has declined from 94.6% at the beginning of August. Many institutions predict that the global oil supply growth rate will far exceed the demand growth rate in 2025, and the fundamentals point to a downward trend in oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has even warned that Brent crude oil may fall to 58 d/b in Q4.
Currently, the market is closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on September 7. A general expectation is the organization to maintain the current production level. ING analysts pointed out that "given the concerns about a supply glut (next year), the greater risk is that OPEC+ may decide to resume production cuts.
Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, WTI is bullish recently. It effectively broke through the key resistance level of $65.00 yesterday, opening up short-term upside potential for WTI. However, in the short term, WTI will face the pressure of the MA60 and an important resistance range of $65.69-$66.10.
If it can effectively break through, the upside potential of WTI may extend to $67.10. Otherwise, WTI may face pressure and retreat, or even continue the previous downward trend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 65.85
Target Price: 60.60
Stop Loss: 67.20
Valid Until: September 17, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 62.78/61.34
Resistance: 65.69/66.10
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