During Thursday's (Nov. 23) Asian session, WTI crude oil oscillated in a narrow range, and it is currently trading at 76.1 dollars/bbl. Yesterday, oil prices were volatile. During the first half of the night, oil prices plummeted rapidly because OPEC + postponed the meeting. A few days ago, due to the market speculation on the extended production cuts at this meeting, oil prices rebounded sharply to 78.5. After the postponement was released, it added more doubts to the market about the production cuts. The shorts are seizing the opportunity to push down the oil price. Yesterday, oil prices fell to 73.8 before rebounding in the second half of the night and recovering most of the decline. The reason for the decline was partially due to the profits-taking orders triggered, but the main reason was that OPEC+ sources said that Russia and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement on the postponement of the meeting because there are still problems to be solved in small oil-producing countries in Africa. This news largely dispelled the market doubt about the internal disagreements in OPEC+ regarding the production cuts. That's crude oil! It was driven by news most of the time and fluctuations could be too large to be thought of. The situation can be turned completely in just one minute, giving so much trouble to investors. Therefore, bigoted investors will lose unless they are billionaires! Now, we should know that the trade is not dominated by us, and we should be good followers, a follower of the trend. Of course, we must establish a set of systems to follow the oil price trend. In the short term, oil prices will be determined by the OPEC+ meeting, which is currently postponed to November 30. Although only some small oil-producing countries have not compromised, the original date has been modified, suggesting internal disagreements. It also shows that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to cut production on its own for the benefit of other oil producers. At the end of this month, if they fail to reach an agreement, the Saudis will probably stop cutting production, which is the best result for the U.S. until the oil price declines to an unacceptable level for all parties. At present, investors should focus on the meeting result next Thursday.  

News: Saudi Arabia and its oil allies are in trouble regarding the dispute over production quotas for African members, which has forced the organization to postpone a major meeting that was originally scheduled for this weekend and has been pushed back four days to Nov. 30.

Inventories: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories were 8.7 million barrels for the week of Nov. 17, compared with expectations of 1.16 million barrels and the previous reading of 3.592 million barrels. Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil stocks were 858,000 barrels, while the previous number was 1.925 million barrels. Refined Oil Inventories were -1.018 million barrels, compared with an expected number of -761,000 barrels, and a previous reading of -1.422 million barrels. Gasoline inventories were 750,000 barrels, while the expected reading should be -150,000 barrels, and the previous reading was -1.54 million barrels. U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding SPR) were 6.529 million bpd, up 156,000 bpd from the previous week.

Today's focus: No important data and the market will mainly driven by the previous news. In addition, investors should focus on next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting for related news and results. 

A deep V-shape rebound was seen in yesterday's oil prices. After plummeting to 73.8, oil prices rebounded rapidly and covered most losses. Then, oil prices closed lower with a long-lower-shadow. Technically, the price is below the 60-day SMA in the 1H chart, and a retracement showed up to reflect a weak pattern. Nevertheless, the price in the 4H chart is oscillating above the 60-day SMA and failing to display a weak or strong trend. Furthermore, the MACD shows a golden cross in the daily chart in the oversold zone, and it explains that WTI crude oil will rebound after a depreciation. Now, investors should focus on the support at the double-bottom of 7235-73.5. If WTI crude oil declines and reaches this area, aggressive investors should go long with small positions.

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 73.500

Target price: 76.500

Stop loss: 73.000

Support: 73.500/72.500

Resistance: 78.500/80.000