Possible Bullish Correction Upon Rapidly Recovering Support

Forex Economic

Summary:

This quick reclaiming of the level suggests that a renewed upward move may be underway from this zone.

Buy USDCHF

End Time

CLOSED

0.80004

ENTRY

0.80250

TGT

0.79850

-- -- --

246

Points

Profit

0.79850

0.80251

CLOSING

0.80004

ENTRY

0.80250

TGT

The latest data from the U.S. presented a conflicting view of the economy. The ISM Services PMI edged up slightly to 52.6 in November from 52.4, surpassing the 52.1 expectation and signaling sustained expansion in the crucial service sector. Conversely, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private sector payrolls surprisingly fell by 32,000 in November, drastically missing forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The October figure was also revised to a lower gain of 47,000. These data points confirm that private businesses cut 32,000 jobs in November, missing the estimate for a 10,000 increase and signaling a deceleration from October's revised 49,000 gain.

Amidst the softer labor data, political commentary continues to fuel rate-cut speculation. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair in early 2026, confirming his Sunday comment: "I know who I’m going to choose, yes. We will be announcing it." Adding fuel to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, is the favored candidate. Hassett is seen as an ally who supports President Trump's call for faster and deeper rate reductions to stimulate the economy.

Market participants are currently pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while real yields hold stable at 1.856%.

In Switzerland, the latest inflation figures for November arrived mixed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% month-over-month (MoM), which aligned with expectations and followed a 0.3% decrease in the prior month. However, the annual rate fell to 0% from 0.1%, landing below the 0.1% forecast.

These mixed inflation readings reinforce expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its policy rate unchanged in December. Recent commentary from Chairman Martin Schlegel indicated that the threshold for returning to negative interest rates remains "high," although the SNB is prepared to cut if conditions necessitate it. Board member Petra Tschudin also noted that inflation is expected to increase slightly in the coming quarters. Possible Bullish Correction Upon Rapidly Recovering Support_1

Possible Bullish Correction Upon Rapidly Recovering Support_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair has rapidly recovered to the 0.8000 psychological level, a point where the price initiated a strong bullish recovery on December 1st. This quick reclaiming of the level suggests that a renewed upward move may be underway from this zone. The bullish case is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which reached the 27 level , clearly signaling oversold conditions. This extreme reading is expected to attract buyers, with the initial objective being the bearish trendline resistance, near the $0.8025$ level.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 1-hour chart are located at $0.8031$ and $0.8049$, respectively. Notably, the 100-period MA aligns closely with the bearish trendline and the $0.618$ Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence zone suggests a high probability that the current corrective move will be drawn toward these levels, where renewed selling pressure could reassert itself.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8001

Target price: 0.8025

Stop loss: 0.7985

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

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