Resilient Technical Structure Points Toward Potential AUDCHF Breakout

Summary:

This confluence of indicators suggests that the pair is gathering sufficient momentum to initiate a new bullish impulse.

Buy AUDCHF

End Time

CLOSED

0.53620

ENTRY

0.54450

TGT

0.53200

0.54520 +0.00367 +0.68%

637

Points

Profit

0.53200

0.54257

CLOSING

0.53620

ENTRY

0.54450

TGT

In Australia, recent inflation figures have exceeded market forecasts, significantly intensifying expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be forced to pivot toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance. In December, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly advancement of 1.0%, a sharp reversal from November's flat reading and comfortably above the 0.7% market consensus. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated from 3.4% to 3.8%, also overshooting the estimated 3.6%.

Conversely, the trimmed-mean (core) inflation data presented a more nuanced picture. While the monthly core figure rose by 0.2% in December—aligning with forecasts but slowing from the prior month's 0.3%—the annual rate edged higher to 3.3%. This remains stubbornly above the RBA's target range of 2%–3%. Furthermore, the NAB Business Confidence Survey for December reinforces the narrative for a tighter policy environment. Should the upcoming trimmed-mean CPI readings continue to exceed projections, the central bank will face mounting pressure to hike rates at its February meeting, a scenario that would likely provide substantial tailwinds for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Across the globe, the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to exhibit relative stability, though it remains notably weak against its antipodean peers. This underperformance persists even after Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel alerted markets to the possibility of negative inflation episodes in the short term. During his address at the World Economic Forum, Schlegel noted a high probability of inflation dipping into negative territory this year, though he emphasized that a few months of deflationary pressure would not pose a significant threat to the broader economy.

From a domestic macroeconomic perspective, market valuations continue to reflect the risk of the SNB cutting interest rates below zero in the coming months. This concern is bolstered by a -1.8% year-over-year decline in the December Producer Price Index (PPI), which brings deflationary risks back into focus. While January's CPI held at 0.1%, confirming that headline inflation remains positive, the current trajectory is undeniably fragile. Combined with a weak Manufacturing PMI of 45.8, the Swiss economy continues to face persistent structural obstacles. With the next SNB policy meeting not scheduled until March 19th, the Franc remains susceptible to further downside if the current 0% policy rate is perceived as insufficient to combat cooling price dynamics. Resilient Technical Structure Points Toward Potential AUDCHF Breakout_1

Resilient Technical Structure Points Toward Potential AUDCHF Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/CHF remains entrenched in a definitive primary uptrend. The pair recently experienced a minor corrective phase after encountering a "Double Top" rejection at the 0.5430 level. However, the price has found a solid floor upon approaching the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart, situated at 0.5350 and 0.5321, respectively.

This technical foundation is further reinforced by a significant horizontal support level at 0.5362. This confluence of indicators suggests that the pair is gathering sufficient momentum to initiate a new bullish impulse. A successful defense of this "Value Area" could finally provide the strength needed to breach the recent resistance and target the 0.5445 zone, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion—a primary area of interest for a long-term breakout.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD confirms that the broader trend remains bullish, with the signal lines comfortably situated above the neutral zone. While the histogram is currently printing smaller bullish bars—suggesting a temporary consolidation or a shallow retest of the 100-period MA—the underlying structural bias remains positive.

As long as the pair holds above this key support cluster, we favor long positions. A technical "reset" of the histogram near the zero line would offer a high-probability entry signal for a trend continuation toward recent highs and beyond.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5362

Target price: 0.5445

Stop loss: 0.5320

Validity: Feb 11, 2026 15:00:00

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