Selling Opportunities Emerge as EURCHF Triggers Triple Rejection at Key Level

Summary:

Additionally, the local support zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area, making it likely that the potential correction will head toward this target.

Sell EURCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.92600

ENTRY

0.91610

TGT

0.93050

0.92322 +0.00024 +0.03%

Point

PENDING

0.91610

TGT

CLOSING

0.92600

ENTRY

0.93050

In Switzerland, figures published by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) showed that foreign exchange reserves increased to CHF 759 billion in June, up from CHF 711 billion recorded in May. This increase suggests greater activity by the monetary authority in foreign exchange markets, within a context where the central bank has frequently resorted to interventions to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc.

This was accompanied by a moderate deterioration in the labor market. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 3.1% in June from 3.0% the previous month, reaching its highest level in nearly five years and reinforcing expectations of an accommodative monetary policy from the SNB.

In the Eurozone, final inflation data continued to point to a gradual moderation of price pressures. In Germany, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated to 2.4% year-on-year in June from 2.7% in May, while prices pulled back by 0.2% in monthly terms. France showed a similar development, with annual inflation moderating to 2.0% from the previous 2.8% and a monthly price decline of 0.3%.

Conversely, Italian industrial activity continued to show signs of weakness. Industrial production contracted by 0.3% in May, exceeding the decline anticipated by the market and leaving year-on-year manufacturing growth at 1.1%, below expectations.

Taken together, these indicators reflect an environment of more contained inflation and moderate economic growth, reinforcing the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting in late July.

However, the outlook for the region remains conditioned by geopolitical risks. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven energy prices higher, presenting new challenges for the ECB. A sustained increase in oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures at a time when the Eurozone economy continues to show signs of slowing down, complicating the balance between price stability and economic growth. Selling Opportunities Emerge as EURCHF Triggers Triple Rejection at Key Level_1

Selling Opportunities Emerge as EURCHF Triggers Triple Rejection at Key Level_1

Technical Analysis

EURCHF seemed to have broken the resistance located at 0.9262 after a strong upward impulse; however, it managed to pull back below this level. This marks the third occasion on which it has rejected this level, showing that a difficult barrier to break exists here. Consequently, we could see the beginning of a downward correction toward the local support zone of 0.9161. Meanwhile, the 100 and 200-period moving averages on the 8-hour chart sit at 0.9207 and 0.9189, respectively, meaning they will offer dynamic support on the way down. Additionally, the local support zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area, making it likely that the potential correction will head toward this target.

Looking at the oscillators, the RSI failed to overcome the 71 level. As soon as it enters overbought territory, the price is rejected to the downside, which has now occurred on three occasions. Therefore, we could see another downward rejection from this zone this time. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish histogram that has already lost almost all of its depth. With the signal lines still above the neutral zone, they indicate that the downward movement would likely be only a pullback within the current market structure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.9260

Target price: 0.9161

Stop loss: 0.9305

Validity: Jul 24, 2026 15:00:00

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