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Still-Elevated Wage Growth and the RBA’s Hawkish Tilt Underpin the Aussie Rebound
Summary:
Australia’s wage price index rose 0.8% QoQ in Q3, with the private sector lagging. RBA officials have sounded a hawkish note, and the cash rate is now expected to remain unchanged until 2026.
PENDING
0.64360
ENTRY
0.66780
TGT
0.63700
SL
-- -- --
--
Point
PENDING
0.63700
SL
CLOSING
0.64360
ENTRY
0.66780
TGT
Fundamentals
AUDUSD retained its corrective bounce near 0.6464 through the Asian and European sessions on Thursday after printing a five-week low of 0.6450. Persistent hawkish push-back from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials continues to undergird the currency.
Wednesday’s data showed the wage price index (WPI) advancing 0.8% QoQ in Q3, in line with consensus and unchanged from Q2.
The headline stability masks modest sectoral divergence: private-sector wages grew 0.7% QoQ while public-sector wages rose 0.9% QoQ extending their recent out-performance.
In annual terms, wages were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, matching Q2. Public-sector pay growth ticked up to 3.8% YoY (vs. 3.7% in Q2), whereas private-sector growth slowed to 3.2% YoY from 3.5% in Sep-2024—marking a third consecutive quarter in which public-sector wage momentum has outpaced the private sector.
Market insight: Australia’s YoY wage momentum remains elevated against a backdrop of tight labour markets and anaemic productivity growth, implying that disinflationary progress could be protracted and complicating the policy calculus for the RBA.
RBA has delivered rate cuts on three occasions this year, taking the cash rate to 3.60%, but it retains a data-dependent, cautiously balanced stance. With the labour market still tight and productivity subdued, the policy debate is shifting toward the extent of further easing space. Yet with unemployment near historic lows, tentative signs of inflation re-acceleration and consumer spending running ahead of expectations, the Board is closely monitoring corporate pricing behaviour.
Governor Michele Bullock has hinted that near-term policy easing is unlikely. Our base case is for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold through 2026.
Technical Analysis
AUDUSD has staged a mild intraday recovery. A break below the 0.6413 region (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.5913–0.6706 range) would expose the 0.6403 handle and open the door to a deeper bearish extension.
On the upside, a sustained move above the near-term resistance at 0.6517 would neutralise the intraday bearish bias.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 0.6436
Target Price: 0.6678
Stop Loss: 0.6370
Valid Until: December 5, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 0.6464/0.6450/0.6413
Resistance Levels: 0.6492/0.6517/0.6537
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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