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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Strong Rebound — Has the Bull-Bear Shift Completed?
Summary:
The market currently expects a 44% probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December, with the first rate reduction not likely until March 2026.
EXPIRED
1.34500
ENTRY
1.29000
TGT
1.37300
SL
1.34103 -0.00019 -0.01%
--
Point
EXPIRED
1.29000
TGT
1.34307
CLOSING
1.34500
ENTRY
1.37300
SL
Fundamentals
UK economic data showed that GDP in August edged up by 0.1% MoM, slightly better than the revised -0.1% in July. In the three months to August, growth rose modestly to 0.3%, mainly supported by public health services, while consumer-facing sectors contracted. Although the IMF projects that the UK could become the second-fastest growing G7 economy by 2025, the average annual growth rate of 1.3% remains insufficient to ease fiscal pressures.
Economists noted that the economy is currently in a “pre-budget lull,” expecting third-quarter growth to reach only about half of the BoE’s forecast. The impact of the US trade war has yet to fully manifest, while elevated domestic budget uncertainty continues to suppress household and business spending intentions. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she hopes to build greater fiscal headroom in the November budget but acknowledged the need for “difficult trade-offs” between raising taxes and cutting public services. She ruled out introducing a new wealth tax but did not exclude raising the bank levy, stressing that all companies should pay their “fair share” of taxes. The BoE has maintained its policy rate at 4%, aiming to balance inflation control and economic support. Market views on UK monetary policy remain divided: Some central bank officials warn of a potential “bumpy landing” for the economy; Others argue that a possible rebound in inflation could delay the pace of rate cuts. The market currently prices in a 44% chance of a BoE rate cut in December, with the first cut expected no earlier than March 2026.
The Fed’s Beige Book, released on October 15, showed that recent US economic activity was broadly flat, while the labor market remained stable but showed signs of softening, including increased layoffs and reduced spending by middle- and low-income households. The report noted that most regions’ employers are cutting staff through layoffs or attrition, driven by weak demand, rising uncertainty, and shifting investment toward AI-related technologies. Meanwhile, tighter immigration policies have constrained labor supply in industries such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing. Overall consumer spending showed a “slight decline,” particularly in retail goods. Regional disparities remain evident—low- and middle-income households are more price-sensitive, with reports of increased food aid usage, growing dependence on “buy now, pay later” services, and worsening credit card delinquencies.
Some respondents described the current economic climate as a “middle-class recession.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has continued to warn about downside risks in the US labor market. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October now stands at 98%, which has weighed on the dollar. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s statement that “the United States is in a full-scale trade conflict with Asian countries” further undermined market confidence in the greenback.
Technical Analysis
On the weekly chart, GBPUSD has found support near the lower Bollinger band after breaking below both the middle band and the EMA12. The RSI at 54 signals a neutral market sentiment, while the MACD lines are pulling back toward the zero axis, indicating that the correction is not yet complete. If the price falls below the lower Bollinger band, it could revisit previous lows and the EMA200, located at 1.314 and 1.29, respectively.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are widening downward, and the price is fluctuating near the middle band. If it breaks and holds above that level, an uptrend could resume; otherwise, it may retest 1.32. After forming a bullish crossover, the MACD lines are retracing toward the zero axis, and the RSI at 53 reflects strong indecision. Upside resistance lies at the previous high and the upper Bollinger band—1.352 and 1.363 respectively.
Therefore, selling on rallies remains the preferred approach.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.345
Target Price: 1.29
Stop Loss: 1.373
Support: 1.32 / 1.30 / 1.29
Resistance Levels: 1.36 / 1.373 / 1.40
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20 years of trading experience, specializing in naked price action analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Chan Theory. Has conducted in-depth research on forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Achieved a tenfold profit during the 2005 bull market and doubled profits within one month of entering the crypto market in 2015. Adheres to the trading philosophy: "Trend is king; focus on the big picture, act on
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