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The $5,000 Gold Target Remains Unchanged, But Beware of This Signal!
Summary:
Weak economic data have further reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut. Throughout the day, multiple officials voiced support for a policy pivot, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller explicitly stating his backing for a rate cut at the September meeting. However, as the rate cut expectations have already been priced in, gold saw a technical pullback following the news, reflecting the classic "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" reaction.
CLOSED
3550.00
ENTRY
3510.00
TGT
3580.00
SL
3586.48 +40.87 +1.15%
3000
Points
Loss
3510.00
TGT
3580.36
CLOSING
3550.00
ENTRY
3580.00
SL
Fundamentals
The latest U.S. economic data has been mixed, reigniting concerns over the strength of the labor market. August ADP private payrolls came in at just 54,000, falling short of the expected 65,000. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 237,000 last week, the highest level since June. These soft data points have further bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut. During the day, several Fed officials expressed support for a shift in policy, with Governor Waller notably endorsing a rate reduction at the September meeting.
However, since rate cut expectations were already well anticipated by the market, gold actually pulled back technically after the news broke, demonstrating the classic "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" reaction. On the policy front, Fed's "Big Three" member John Williams stated that if the economy performs in line with expectations, a gradual series of rate cuts would be appropriate. In contrast, 2026 FOMC voter Michelle Bowman held a dissenting view, arguing that inflation remains high and its trend is concerning, and she explicitly opposes a rate cut in September.
In trade news, President Trump officially signed an executive order on a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, announcing plans to impose a 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese goods. This move could trigger renewed trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a market operations meeting on October 16th. Amid shifting political dynamics, potential adjustments to Japan's currency policy may structurally impact the safe-haven appeal of both gold and the U.S. dollar.
Today's key data focus will be on the U.S. August employment report. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are forecasted to rise by 80,000 (consensus: 75,000; previous: 73,000), with average hourly earnings expected to grow 0.3% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.2% (previous: 4.2%). Ahead of the NFP release, the market remains relatively stable, and the U.S. Dollar Index is not expected to see significant fluctuations.
Technical Analysis
Gold broke above the Bollinger Upper Band but faced selling pressure and pulled back in the 1H chart. It is currently finding support near the Bollinger Middle Band and consolidating. The MACD uptrend histogram is gradually weakening, while the price is failing to make new highs. Additionally, RSI peaks are declining, signaling a potential bearish divergence — suggesting a higher likelihood of short-term adjustment. Support levels are near the Bollinger Lower Band and the previous low, at approximately 3,533 and 3,511, respectively.
Judging from the daily chart, after breaking above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation pattern, gold has been rising strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with moving averages diverging upwards as well. In addition, the MACD shows a golden cross, and the RSI stands at 74, entering overbought territory. This indicates that a pullback could occur at any time. Overall, after retesting the upper edge of the triangle, another upward breakout is likely. Initially, investors should sell and then buy at lows later.
Trading Recommendations:
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 3550
Target price: 3510
Stop loss: 3580
Support: 3510/3480/3400
Resistance: 3580/3600/3700
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20 years of trading experience, specializing in naked price action analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Chan Theory. Has conducted in-depth research on forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Achieved a tenfold profit during the 2005 bull market and doubled profits within one month of entering the crypto market in 2015. Adheres to the trading philosophy: "Trend is king; focus on the big picture, act on
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