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4017.89

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In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.

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      The Current Rally in Oil Prices May Be Merely a Technical Rebound, with Downside Risks Remaining Once the Upswing Ends

      Summary:

      Crude oil prices have rebounded sharply from recent lows and even broke above key resistance levels. However, from a broader market structure perspective, the latest advance appears to be more of a technical correction rather than the beginning of a new long-term bull market. Without sustained fundamental support, oil prices could retreat toward the $70.00 area after the rebound runs its course and may even stabilize only after breaking below the previous low near $67.00.

      Buy WTI
      EXP
      Trading

      80.294

      ENTRY

      92.000

      TGT

      63.800

      SL

      81.733 +2.866 +3.63%

      0

      Point

      Flat

      63.800

      SL

      CLOSING

      80.294

      ENTRY

      92.000

      TGT

      Fundamentals

      The crude oil market continues to face uncertainty regarding the supply-demand outlook. On one hand, geopolitical risks and short-term supply disruptions are providing temporary support to prices. On the other hand, expectations of slowing global economic growth, weak demand from major consuming countries, and the possibility of further production increases by OPEC+ could limit additional upside.
      Meanwhile, declining U.S. crude inventories and short-covering activities have jointly fueled the recent rally. However, capital flow dynamics suggest that long-term investors remain cautious about the sustainability of higher oil prices. Therefore, the current advance looks more like a recovery from previously oversold conditions rather than a genuine trend reversal.
      The Current Rally in Oil Prices May Be Merely a Technical Rebound, with Downside Risks Remaining Once the Upswing Ends_1

      Technical Analysis

      During the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil rebounded again from the lower end of its recent consolidation range. Previously, oil prices surged from around $70.00 in early July to above $80.00 within just a few weeks. Despite the impressive gains, the move appears to have been primarily a technical recovery.
      WTI is currently testing resistance near Tuesday's high. Fibonacci retracement analysis highlights several key support areas that could serve as potential re-entry levels for bulls:
      38.2% Fibonacci retracement: $77.35, broadly in line with current price action.
      50% Fibonacci retracement: $76.00, which may be tested if the pullback deepens.
      61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $74.70, which also coincides with the ascending trendline and the previous ascending triangle breakout area, making it a critical support level for maintaining the medium-term bullish structure.
      If these support levels hold, WTI could extend its rebound and challenge previous highs, potentially retesting resistance around $92.00.
      Nevertheless, from a short- to medium-term perspective, we continue to view the current rise as a technical rebound. As the oversold recovery gradually loses momentum, oil prices could weaken again if demand conditions fail to improve materially. In such a scenario, WTI may retreat toward the $70.00 level and could even break below it before establishing a new base.

      Trading Strategy

      Direction: Buy
      Entry Price: 78.50
      Target Price: 92.00
      Stop Loss: 63.80
      Valid Until: August 16, 2026, 23:55
      Support: 77.90, 76.00, 74.82
      Resistance: 80.57, 85.53, 89.68
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analysts

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

      Rank

      4

      Articless

      2673

      Win Rate

      60.51%

      P/L Ratio

      0.67

      Focus on

      XAUUSD, WTI, GBPUSD

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