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USD/CHF price is currently trading near the lower region of the intra-day range
Summary:
USD/CHF is trading just below 0.8000, having dipped under that level as the Swiss franc strengthens after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) held rates at 0% while the US dollar fluctuates amid dovish Fed pricing...
CLOSED
0.79616
ENTRY
0.80150
TGT
0.79200
SL
0.79620 +0.00038 +0.05%
34
Points
Loss
0.79200
SL
0.79582
CLOSING
0.79616
ENTRY
0.80150
TGT
Overview
Earlier this week the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps to a 3.50%–3.75% range, and though markets expected the move, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary hinted at an extended period without further hikes, dampening the greenback. This drove the dollar lower against the Swiss franc and other majors.
At the same time, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0%, and the Swiss franc drew strength on global risk aversion and safe-haven demand. As a result, USD/CHF retreated from levels near 0.8000 toward approximately 0.7950–0.7980 as CHF gains traction.
Despite this decline, there are foundational forces that could support a rebound in USD/CHF. Firstly, markets are now pricing a potential pause in easing after the recent Fed cut, which could lend support to the dollar if upcoming US data surprises to the upside. Secondly, the SNB’s commitment to holding the policy rate through 2026 suggests limited downward pressure from Swiss monetary policy alone, and at times the franc can weaken if the global market shifts back towards risk assets.
Market sentiment
Investor sentiment toward USD/CHF remains cautious but not uniformly bearish. The broad dollar weakness of recent days has encouraged CHF strength, especially given the franc’s safe-haven status. However, sentiment may be shifting slightly as markets absorb the full impact of the Fed decision and consider that the cycle of consecutive cuts may be nearing a pause, if not a bottom. This dynamic tends to create short-term rebounds in the dollar when data show resilience, or when risk sentiment improves. With the franc’s safe-haven status potentially losing some immediate appeal amidst easing expectations for further rate cuts, USD/CHF could find demand at support. On short timeframes, traders are watching the 0.7950–0.7980 zone; if this holds and USD buyers step in, sentiment could flip toward cautious bullishness, especially into intraday dips.
Technical analysis
USD/CHF price is currently trading near the lower region of the intra-day range. Recent candlesticks have probed below the 0.8000 psychological level, with daily trading data showing the rate has fluctuated between approximately 0.7924 and 0.8002. This suggests the market is finding interest around the lower Bollinger band of the short-term volatility envelope. The mid-band often lies near 0.7980–0.7990, and if price finds support around this area and rejects lower levels, a move back toward the mid or upper band becomes feasible.
Under Ichimoku (9,26,52) rules on M15, price trading near or slightly below the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen can indicate a compressed, oversold dynamic where mean reversion is likely once downward momentum hits exhaustion. If price then crosses above the Tenkan, a short-term BUY bias is confirmed. Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 will be crucial: a bullish crossover from the oversold region (below ~20) signals a return of short-term buying momentum. A confluence of rejected lower wicks, a bullish stochastic trigger, and price stabilising above the lower Bollinger band strengthens the case for a reversal.
Trade idea
Entry: 0.7960–0.7970
Take Profit: 0.8015
Stop Loss: 0.7920
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