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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
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HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
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In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Yen Weakens! USDJPY Uptrend Confirmed
Summary:
Recent wage, employment and inflation releases from Japan and the U.S. confirm synchronous labour-market cooling across major economies, but with divergent speed and scale, materially reshaping the monetary-policy outlook. Heightened Sino-Japanese tensions add external pressure to the yen.
PENDING
157.000
ENTRY
160.000
TGT
155.000
SL
157.917 +1.059 +0.68%
--
Point
PENDING
155.000
SL
CLOSING
157.000
ENTRY
160.000
TGT
Fundamentals
The government's preliminary November data show real cash earnings fell 2.8%YoY—the steepest drop since Jan. 2025 and the eleventh consecutive decline—driven by a 17% YoY plunge in special cash earnings (one-off bonuses). Nominal wages rose just 0.5% YoY, the weakest since Dec. 2021.
The MHLW stresses that special payments are volatile in non-bonus months and November prints are typically revised up. Underlying momentum remains intact: base pay +2.0%YoY, overtime +1.2%YoY. Inflation continues to outpace wages. The CPI index used to deflate earnings advanced 3.3% YoY, above core gauges.
With real incomes squeezed, the BoJ lifted the policy rate to 0.75% last month—its highest in three decades—and expects sustained wage gains in the 2026 shuntō negotiations. Rengo has tabled a 5%-plus total wage increase target.
In the U.S. the labor market is cooling, not cracking. Seasonally-adjusted initial claims rose 8,000 to 208k,000 in the week ending 27 Dec—still a historic low. Holiday noise dominates the recent volatility, and layoff volumes remain contained. Hiring is on hold: tariff uncertainty and faster AI adoption keep recruiters sidelined, producing a low-turnover stalemate. Structural stress is nevertheless building.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas report U.S. employers announced 1,206,000 job cuts in 2025, +58% YoY and a five-year high, driven by federal downsizing and tech-sector cost rationalization. Years of over-hiring plus rapid AI transition are accelerating tech attrition. Hiring plans are down 34% YoY to the lowest level since 2010, raising the risk of longer spells of unemployment. Continuing claims have climbed to 1914,000, job openings have fallen to a 14-month low, and the vacancy-to-unemployed ratio has dropped to 0.91, its lowest since Mar. 2021.
Against this backdrop, the Chicago Fed estimates the December unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%. Policymakers treat this threshold as consistent with further monetary easing. Reuters-surveyed economists expect the official rate to edge down to 4.5%.
Technical Analysis
Daily: Bollinger Bands on USDJPY have contracted and flattened. The EMA12 is horizontal. A large bullish candle on 19 Dec 2025 closed above the upper band, and price has since tracked the EMA12 higher, re-entering a short-term uptrend with a high-probability retest of 158–160. MACD fast and slow lines have pulled back to zero and re-crossed bullishly, re-confirming a long signal. RSI 59 with rising lows keeps buyers in control, with the support at 156-157.
Weekly: Price oscillates around the EMA12 within the ascending channel. While this EMA holds, a move toward 160 is anticipated. MACD is shaping a "golden-kiss" re-cross. RSI 67, bullish bias intact. At this moment, traders are advised to go long at lows.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 157
Target Price: 160
Stop Loss: 155
Support: 154.7/153.2/150
Resistance Levels: 158/158.8/160
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