A complex inflation reading doesn't stop Trump's team from bragging about lower prices

Summary:

Trump officials touted softer CPI and rising real wages, but economists warned the inflation data was distorted by the shutdown, urging caution as unemployment edges higher.

President Trump's team quickly went all out to highlight Thursday's better-than-expected inflation print, while economists were just as quick to warn not to read too much into the numbers.

One White House social media account posted about inflation and prices 14 times in the first two hours after the news was released at 8:30 am ET that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the previous year in November.

The reading was well below expectations of a 3.1% increase.

"Americans can expect this trend of lower prices and bigger paychecks to continue into the New Year," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt even went so far as to promise.

The news helped stocks to jump on Thursday, and the relief rally looked set to continue on Friday.

Economists, meanwhile, were far more restrained, repeatedly cautioning that the data — which was disrupted and delayed by the government shutdown and offered no month-on-month reading from September — may be unreliable.

Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, called the report "positive news overall," but quickly added that the data was less detailed than normal because of the shutdown. "We'll need to wait until next month for a clearer read on inflation."

As RSM's Joe Brusuelas added in his own note: "One should proceed with caution around making policy and investment judgements around the November inflation data."

The day before the inflation report hit, Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night and claimed "inflation has stopped" as he repeatedly tried to blame Joe Biden for price increases that have stoked American anxieties this year.

By Thursday morning, many Trump officials were working to highlight how real wages — the measure of inflation against wage increases — have shown steady improvement throughout 2025.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show that median weekly real earnings dropped during the inflation spike early in Biden's term and have been steadily rising ever since 2022.

Less in focus from Trump and his team this week are new Labor Department numbers released Tuesday that found the nation's unemployment rate has crept up to 4.6%, the highest level in four years.

During Wednesday night's speech to the nation, the president continued trying to address Americans' worries around affordability, announcing new checks to military members, dubbed a "warrior dividend."

Less in focus from Trump and his team this week are new Labor Department numbers released Tuesday that found the nation's unemployment rate has crept up to 4.6%, the highest level in four years.

Source: finance.yahoo

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