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Currencies: Donald, a misunderstood genius?
Summary:
Donald Trump's economic strategy centers on U.S. growth, low interest rates, and a weaker dollar to boost exports. This approach pressures the Fed and risks the dollar’s safe-haven status. Markets remain volatile.
Given the sometimes contradictory statements made by the US president, it is sometimes difficult to get a clear picture of his economic policy objectives. To help clarify the situation, here is a quick summary. Donald Trump's economic vision is US-centric, focused on growth, industrial employment (through the the country's reindustrialization) and competitiveness.
To achieve this, he wants to pull several levers. First, he is campaigning for low interest rates of around 1%, in order to reduce the cost of debt servicing, hence supporting both credit, real estate, and consumption. Second, he wants to weaken the dollar to stimulate exports and support the competitiveness of US companies while rebalancing the trade balance. The imposition of massive tariffs on steel, automobiles, and many countries is intended to indirectly force a depreciation of the dollar. However, the US president's interference is not without risk and raises questions about the independence of the Fed and could also cause the dollar to lose its status as a safe haven.
All these factors largely explain the greenback's decline since the beginning of the year. The EUR/USD breaking above 1.1675 could further accentuate the trend, despite the persistence of bearish divergences on technical indicators. As stated in last week's column, we will therefore wait for the 50-day moving average, currently providing support around 1.1380, to be broken to confirm that the uptrend is losing momentum and offer the dollar a real boost. In the meantime, the short-term upside targets are 1.1918/28 before 1.2000/35. In the longer term, 1.2190 and then 1.2340 remain entirely possible, but each day will bring its own challenges. Tactically, however, it is advisable not to take positions during breakouts due to the presence of bearish divergences. Instead, we would favor buying on dips.
The USD/JPY played a nice trick on us with a direct return to 146.60/145.70 on the very day that this zone was exceeded. This false breakout effectively widens the range to 148.00/65 at the top and 142.00 at the bottom. The USD/CHF hit its intermediate resistance at 0.8225 and is on its way to 0.7900 for initial resistance at 0.8115.
On the commodity currency front, the Aussie successfully tested its key support at 0.6390, while the Kiwi reacted well at 0.5900 in parallel. As for the USD/CAD, it remains poorly oriented as long as 1.3805 is not exceeded.
source : marketscreener
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