German Aviation Recovery Lags Europe, Domestic Air Travel Remains Weak

Summary:

Germany’s aviation market is recovering far more slowly than the rest of Europe, with domestic air travel still operating at only about half of pre-pandemic levels....

A recovery trailing the European average

According to a report released on January 16 by the German Aviation Association (BDL), Germany’s aviation market is entering 2026 with a noticeably subdued recovery trajectory. In the first half of 2026, flights to, from, and within Germany are expected to offer around 122.7 million seats, representing just a 2% increase year on year and only 89% of 2019 capacity levels.

This stands in sharp contrast to the rest of Europe, where aviation capacity is forecast to grow by around 6% and already exceed pre-pandemic levels at approximately 114%. The divergence highlights not only a slower recovery in Germany, but a growing structural gap between Europe’s largest economy and its regional peers.

Domestic air travel remains the weakest link

The most pronounced weakness lies in Germany’s domestic aviation segment. BDL notes that domestic air traffic has shown almost no growth and currently stands at only about 50% of its 2019 level. This reflects a long-term decline in short-haul domestic routes, which face intense competition from high-speed rail while also bearing relatively high operating costs and government levies.

Short- and medium-haul European routes have also struggled to regain momentum, with capacity reaching only about 94% of pre-crisis levels. Notably, routes serving business and economic travel destinations are recovering more slowly than leisure-focused routes, suggesting that corporate travel demand in Germany remains subdued.

Long-haul routes, while still recovering, have also lost some of the strong post-pandemic momentum seen earlier, as households and companies adopt a more cautious approach amid weak economic growth across Europe.

Major hubs lag while low-cost regional airports gain ground

The uneven recovery is clearly visible across German airports. Frankfurt and Munich, the country’s two largest hubs, have reached roughly 90% and 84% of pre-pandemic traffic respectively. Other major airports such as Berlin, Stuttgart, Cologne/Bonn and Düsseldorf remain even further from a full recovery.

By contrast, several smaller regional airports with lower operating costs have recorded stronger growth. Airports such as Dortmund, Karlsruhe/Baden-Baden, Weeze and Memmingen have benefited from capacity expansions by low-cost carriers, underlining how cost structures are increasingly shaping airline network decisions in Germany.

This shift suggests a gradual rebalancing of traffic away from traditional hubs toward airports that offer cheaper and more flexible operating conditions.

Taxes and fees as a structural constraint

BDL argues that the core reason behind Germany’s slow aviation recovery is not merely weak demand, but the comparatively heavy burden of taxes and government fees. These costs push up ticket prices, weaken the competitiveness of German airports, and encourage passengers to depart from airports in neighboring countries.

The governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD has announced plans to reduce air ticket taxes from July 1, 2026, which the industry views as a positive signal. However, aviation companies argue that the measures are insufficient, given the scale of the cost disadvantage Germany has accumulated over recent years.

Outlook and policy implications

Germany’s sluggish aviation recovery increasingly appears to be a structural rather than cyclical issue. Without broader reforms to taxation, fees, and regulatory costs, the country risks losing its position as a leading European aviation hub, as traffic continues to shift toward lower-cost airports elsewhere in the region.

At a time when aviation across Europe has largely moved beyond pre-pandemic levels, restoring the competitiveness of Germany’s aviation sector will be critical not only for tourism, but also for business connectivity and the broader logistics role of Europe’s largest economy in the years ahead.

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