Gold and Silver Storm to Records as Fed Hit With Subpoenas

Summary:

Gold and silver hit record highs after U.S. subpoenas targeting the Fed revived fears over central bank independence, weakening the dollar and boosting safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

Gold and silver climbed to records in a broad-based metals rally as the US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, reviving concerns over the central bank’s independence.

The yellow metal spiked toward $4,600 an ounce, while silver rose above $84 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the potential indictment comes amid “threats and ongoing pressure” by the administration to influence interest-rate decisions. The dollar weakened and US 10-year Treasury yields edged higher.

Repeated attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration were a major factor aiding gold and silver last year, and that driver looks set to persist.

“We see increased interference with the Fed as a key bullish wildcard for the precious metals in 2026,” said Julius Baer Group Ltd.’s Carsten Menke. The silver market, smaller in size, is more sensitive to moves in rates and the dollar so is “likely to react more strongly to such concerns,” he said.

Gold and Silver Storm to Records as Fed Hit With Subpoenas_1

Precious metals are being driven higher by a confluence of tailwinds, including falling US rates, heightened geopolitical tensions and a perception that the US will slacken its efforts to manage inflation. More than a dozen money managers said they’ve opted not to take too much money off the table in gold, holding conviction in its long-term appeal.

The possible Fed indictment “is a reminder of how many uncertainties markets are juggling — geopolitics, the growth/rates debate, and now a fresh headline-driven reminder of an institutional risk premium,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.

The US Supreme Court, meanwhile, set Wednesday for the next possible opinion day on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. A ruling against the levies would undercut his signature economic policy and deliver his biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House.

Traders are also waiting for results from the so-called Section 232 investigation, which may lead to US tariffs on silver, platinum and palladium. That report is expected this month.

Silver Climbs

Silver jumped as much as 6% on Monday to just above $84.60 an ounce.

The white metal surged almost 150% last year, in part reflecting a historic short squeeze. The dominant spot market in London has seen continued tightness as tariff fears prevent supplies from flowing from packed warehouses in the US, though borrowing costs for the metal have eased somewhat this week.

“We see the deficit in the silver market continuing throughout 2026, primarily on higher investment demand,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions Inc., said in a note on Monday. Industrial consumption has also tightened the physical market to an unprecedented degree, it said.

A speculative frenzy in China has helped turbocharge the metals rally in recent weeks, with traders and deep-pocketed funds piling into commodities such as nickel, platinum and silver. The nation’s only pure-play silver fund even had to turn away new investors, worried about a high-risk spike in premiums over the value of its underlying assets.

Deadly protests in Iran, meanwhile, highlighted the haven appeal of precious metals on the possibility that the Islamic Republic could be overthrown. Trump said Sunday he was mulling potential options on Iran, while also reiterating threats to take Greenland and questioning the value of the NATO alliance, just over a week after seizing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Gold rose as much as 2% to a record $4,599.87 an ounce, trading up 1.9% at $4,593.46 an ounce as of 11:18 a.m. in London.

What Bloomberg Strategists Say...

“Gold is near its highs of the day, and its rally reflects a convergence of political, monetary and geopolitical risks that are reinforcing demand for haven assets. A move toward $5,000 soon seems highly plausible given that backdrop.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.3%. Both palladium and platinum advanced about 3%.

Source: Bloomberg

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