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Japanese yen stable after dismal week
Summary:
The yen steadied after a sharp weekly drop. The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecast but likely holds rates as U.S. tariffs and trade tensions cloud the economic outlook.
The Japanese yen is trading quietly on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.47, up 0.04%.
The US dollar posted strong gains last week, as USD/JPY jumped 2.0%, its best week since December 2024.
BoJ could revise inflation forecast
The Bank of Japan may revise upwards its inflation forecast for the 2025 fiscal year, due to sharp rises in the price of rice and other foods. Core consumer inflation, which is made up to a large extent from food prices, has trended higher as a result and rose to 3.7% in May, well above the Bank's inflation target of 2%. Underlying inflation, however, remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. Governor Ueda has repeatedly stressed that the central bank will raise rates once it is convinced that underlying inflation will approach and remain sustainable at the 2% level.
The BoJ will release its quarterly updated growth and inflation at its meeting on July 31. The central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5% and continue its wait-and-see attitude. BoJ policymakers are concerned over the impact of US tariffs and the stalled trade talks between the US and Japan. President Trump poured some cold water on hopes of a deal last week, saying that he would impose new tariffs on Japanese products if a deal wasn't reached by August 1.
Some hawkish BOJ members expressed concern at the June meeting that inflation and wage pressures were building quickly and inflation was close to the 2% target. Still, the Bank will be hesitant to raise rates in this turbulent economic climate and the Bank could decide to hold rates until 2026.
USD/JPY Technical
There is resistance at 147.91 and 148.41
147.03 and 146.53 are the next support levels
USDJPY 1-Day Chart, July 14, 2025
Source: marketpulse
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