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July 1st Financial News
Summary:
EU will accept Trump's 10% across-the-board tariffs while seeking lower tariffs for critical sectors, sources say; Trump signs executive order terminating sanctions on Syria; U.S. Treasury Chief signals Fed leadership change on horizon......
[Quick Facts]
1. EU will accept Trump's 10% across-the-board tariffs, sources say.
2. Trump signs executive order terminating sanctions on Syria.
3. U.S. Treasury Chief signals Fed leadership change on horizon.
4. Goldman Sachs moves up Fed rate cut forecast to September.
[News Details]
EU will accept Trump's 10% across-the-board tariffs, sources say
The European Union is willing to accept a trade agreement with the United States featuring a 10% across-the-board tariff on many EU exports, but seeks U.S. commitment to lower tariffs for critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft, according to sources familiar with the matter. The EU is also pushing for quotas and exemptions from the U.S. to effectively mitigate its 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, as well as 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Sources indicate that Maroš Šefčovič, the EU's trade chief, will lead a delegation to Washington this week to advance negotiations. The European Commission further aims to ensure that both existing U.S. sectoral tariffs (e.g., on autos and metals) and planned future tariffs are addressed.
Trump signs executive order terminating sanctions on Syria
The White House announced on June 30th that President Trump signed an executive order ending sanctions against Syria.
The statement noted that the order eases export controls on certain goods and lifts restrictions on foreign assistance to Syria. A senior U.S. Treasury official stated this would end Syria's isolation from the international financial system.
In 1979, the U.S. government designated Syria as a "state sponsor of terrorism," imposing arms embargoes, economic sanctions, and other measures. Following the 2011 Syrian crisis, the U.S. escalated sanctions. In 2019, during his first term, Trump signed the so-called Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, imposing financial and other sanctions on Syrian government officials, as well as individuals and entities funding the Syrian government.
U.S. Treasury Chief signals Fed leadership change on horizon
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed confidence during a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television that Trump's comprehensive tax legislation would advance, anticipating the president would sign the bill before July 4th.
Bessent further stated that tariffs had not triggered inflation, but the Federal Reserve appeared "idle." Trump is considering appointing Powell's successor early next year and hinted that current Fed governors are candidates. This follows Trump's renewed criticism of the central bank, asserting that "Mr. Too Late" Jerome Powell and the entire Federal Reserve Board should feel ashamed for not cutting rates.
Goldman Sachs moves up Fed rate cut forecast to September
Goldman Sachs's latest forecast indicates the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points each at its September, October, and December meetings while lowering its terminal rate projection from the previous 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25%. The report notes tariff-driven inflation effects were "slightly weaker than expected," and factors such as increased anti-deflationary force, substantial labor market weakness, or panic induced by volatile monthly data could prompt an earlier September cut. Should preventative cutting motives emerge, consecutive meeting cuts, as in 2019, would be the most natural approach.
However, Goldman Sachs analysts clarified that unless this week's jobs data falls far short of expectations, no rate cut is penciled in for the July meeting.
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