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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Market navigator: week of 14 July 2025
Summary:
Markets edge lower amid tariff tensions as Q2 earnings season begins. US stocks consolidate near highs, Hang Seng trades sideways, Bitcoin rebounds. Key data from China, US, UK, and Japan await.
Markets in focus
US equities consolidate ahead of earnings season amid trade policy uncertainty
Investors largely shrugged off tariff announcements as the extended deadline provides three weeks for diplomatic negotiations. Major US indices retreated marginally from previous week's historical peaks, with the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.4% and the Dow Jones falling 1.0%.
Over the weekend, President Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariff European Union arrangements. The IG's weekend indices US Tech 100 declined by 0.5% while the Germany 40 declined by 1% following the news.
The Q2 US corporate earnings season commences, representing a critical performance driver for July as markets navigate elevated valuations. Analysts project 4.9% YoY growth for the S&P 500 in Q2, significantly below Q1's actual 13.3% and the 10-year average of 9.2%. Major banks, Netflix and Johnson & Johnson feature prominently in this week's reporting schedule.
Technical analysis indicates the US Tech 100 is consolidating near recently established historic highs. Traders await directional signals to assess potential for testing the next psychological resistance at 23,000. Maintenance above the 20-day simple moving average at 22,442 preserves the ascending trend from mid-May. Failure to hold this level may drive the index towards support around 21,500.
Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart
Hang Seng Index remains constrained within narrow trading range
Supported by risk-on sentiment, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) advanced 0.9% last week, closing at 24,140. The index has traded within a +/-500 point range from 24,000 for 15 consecutive sessions, reinforcing this level as substantial resistance from both technical and psychological perspectives.
Star Plus Legend emerged as the top performer on the Hang Seng Composite index. As a proxy for Jay Chow's entertainment business, shares surged 174% following the Asian pop star's official account launch on Douyin, the domestic version of TikTok. Materials represented the sole sector generating negative returns amid uncertainties surrounding international copper prices following recent US tariff policies.
Technical indicators have improved for the HSI as it rebounded swiftly after approaching the lower boundary of the narrow uptrend channel established from 24 April at approximately 23,700, with the year's peak at 24,874 in sight. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator approaches positive crossover territory. Material support should be found around 22,500.
Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart
Bitcoin establishes new record above $118,000
Beyond risk-on sentiment, anticipation of the GENIUS Act discussion in the House this week has bolstered optimism. If enacted, the legislation would represent the first US law regulating stablecoin issuers. Bitcoin appreciated 8% last week, approaching $119,000 before retracing to current levels.
Following record highs established on 23 May, Bitcoin has maintained a mildly bearish trajectory. However, last week's price action suggests the correction phase has concluded. Momentum indicators are improving as July trading volume tracks to recover or exceed May's levels following a subdued June. Institutional investor flows predominantly drive activity, with market capitalisation now exceeding $2.2 trillion.
A 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the upward movement from 7 April to 23 May indicates potential for prices to reach $121,439 before encountering material resistance. The previous high of $111,977 has established support.
As highlighted in our Market Navigator on 30 June, Ether — the second-largest cryptocurrency — has demonstrated higher market sensitivity (beta). Last week's rally confirmed this analysis as Ether outperformed Bitcoin with a 15% gain, though it remains 28% below its 52-week high.
Figure 3: Bitcoin (daily) price chart
The week ahead
The week ahead delivers crucial economic assessments across major economies, with China's Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) data taking centre stage as markets evaluate whether the world's second-largest economy can maintain momentum amid escalating trade tensions and domestic headwinds.
China's economy expanded robustly by 5.4% year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, supported by strong industrial output and export growth as manufacturers accelerated shipments ahead of looming tariffs. Government trade-in subsidies also spurred a sharp rebound in retail sales, providing a substantial boost to headline gross domestic product.
However, the intensifying US-China tariff war in April has led to noticeably weaker purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings throughout Q2, raising questions about whether resilient retail strength alone can offset mounting external headwinds.
While consumer prices edged up slightly from -0.1% to +0.1% last month, inflation remains subdued, and producer prices continue to contract, highlighting ongoing deflationary pressures. Combined with persistent weakness in the property sector, these domestic challenges are likely to weigh on near-term growth.
Against this backdrop of mixed signals, we anticipate China's YoY GDP growth to ease to 5.2% in Q2.
Elsewhere, inflation readings across three major economies will command significant attention, as US consumer price data tests whether tariff impact will begin to manifest, whilst UK inflation figures gauge the Bank of England's policy trajectory and Japan's price pressures reveal the persistence of above-target inflation amid economic uncertainty. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading for July will conclude the week, offering critical insights into American household spending intentions.
Figure 4: China's GDP growth rate
Source: ig
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