Mexico Reviews Cuba Oil Shipments Amid US Pressure

Mexico's government is internally reviewing its policy of supplying oil to Cuba, a critical economic lifeline for the island nation. According to sources familiar with the discussions, President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration is growing increasingly concerned about potential retaliation from the United States.

With Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba halted following a U.S. blockade and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, Mexico has become the island's single largest energy provider. This unique position has placed the country directly in Washington's line of sight as it grapples with Cuba's severe energy shortages and widespread blackouts.

Washington's Hardline Stance

The pressure from the United States is direct and unambiguous. President Donald Trump has declared that Cuba is "ready to fall" and issued a stark warning in a January 11 Truth Social post: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!"

This escalating rhetoric has fueled anxiety within Sheinbaum's cabinet. While Mexico publicly maintains that the oil shipments are part of longstanding international aid contracts, the internal policy review reflects a delicate balancing act. The government is simultaneously attempting to renegotiate the USMCA trade pact and convince Washington of its commitment to combating drug cartels without needing U.S. military intervention on its soil.

The sources, who requested anonymity, confirmed that the review is ongoing, with all options on the table—from a complete halt of shipments to a reduction or a full continuation of the current policy.

The Mexican presidency reiterated its sovereign right to the policy, stating the country "has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba." A White House official reinforced President Trump's position, suggesting Cuba should "make a deal before it is too late."

Direct Pressure and Drone Surveillance

The tension has manifested in direct communications and military posturing. During a recent phone call, President Trump reportedly questioned President Sheinbaum about the crude shipments and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico. Sheinbaum defended the oil as "humanitarian aid" and stated the medical program complies with Mexican law. Sources noted that Trump did not explicitly demand a stop to the oil deliveries during the call.

Adding to the concerns are reports of U.S. Navy drone activity over the Gulf of Mexico. Since December, at least three Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have been tracked flying over the Bay of Campeche, appearing to follow the routes used by tankers transporting Mexican fuel to Cuba. Similar reconnaissance flights were observed off the Venezuelan coast just before the U.S. action there.

One government source expressed the growing fear that "the United States could take unilateral action on our territory."

A Diplomatic Balancing Act

To manage the relationship, Sheinbaum's administration has taken significant steps on other fronts. It has launched an offensive against the Sinaloa Cartel and authorized the transfer of nearly 100 drug kingpins to the United States—actions praised by U.S. officials. However, Sheinbaum has firmly stated that any unilateral U.S. military action in Mexico would be a violation of sovereignty.

Despite the external pressure, Sheinbaum has publicly defended the oil policy. "Very little of the crude oil produced in Mexico is sent to Cuba, but it is a form of solidarity in a situation of hardship and difficulty," she said on Wednesday, adding, "That doesn't have to disappear."

Cuba's Economic Lifeline and Regional Stability

Cuba is heavily reliant on imported fuel for electricity, transport, and industry. U.S. sanctions and a severe economic crisis have long hampered its ability to purchase fuel, forcing it to depend on allies.

Within the Mexican government, some officials argue that cutting off Cuba's oil supply could trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. They fear such a disaster would lead to mass migration toward Mexico, creating a new set of challenges. This concern is a powerful incentive to maintain at least some level of fuel supply to the island.

With Venezuelan supplies cut and a heavy U.S. military presence in the region, it is unlikely other producers would step in to fill the gap. The U.S. has already seized tankers involved in shipping sanctioned crude from countries like Iran and Russia.

According to data from state oil company Pemex filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Mexico shipped an average of 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and 2,000 bpd of refined products to Cuba between January and September of last year, valued at approximately $400 million.