Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising OPEC Output and Trendline Breaks Challenge Bullish Outlook

Summary:

Oil and natural gas weakened as rising OPEC+ output, soft demand, and trendline breaks pressured prices. WTI, Brent, and gas all face firm resistance levels, with bearish momentum dominant unless key thresholds are reclaimed.

Market Overview

WTI crude retreated toward $58 per barrel on Thursday as shifting geopolitical tensions eased earlier supply concerns. Reports suggesting renewed energy flows into Europe reduced fears of prolonged disruptions, while rising OPEC+ production and soft demand expectations added to a bearish market backdrop.

Traders now await updated OPEC and IEA outlooks for clarity on the evolving supply–demand balance. Meanwhile, US data showed a 1.8 million-barrel draw in crude inventories, offset by rising Cushing stocks, which remain at their lowest seasonal levels since 2007.

The combination of geopolitical recalibration and oversupply risks continues to anchor near-term energy market sentiment.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas is trading near $4.56, extending its pullback after breaking below the long-term ascending trendline that supported the multi-week rally. Price is now struggling beneath $4.69, where recent candles show repeated rejection, confirming this level as short-term resistance. The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are both sloping downward, keeping momentum tilted bearish.

If sellers maintain pressure, support sits at $4.39, followed by $4.27 and the deeper zone at $4.13, all previous reaction areas from earlier consolidation phases. A break below $4.39 would confirm continued trend weakness.

If buyers attempt recovery, they must reclaim $4.69 and close above the broken trendline to shift momentum. As long as Natural Gas stays under $4.69, the bias favors further downside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $58.18, slipping back after failing to break the descending trendline drawn from last week’s high. Recent candles show repeated rejection around $58.56, confirming it as near-term resistance. Price remains below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA on the 2-hour chart, keeping momentum tilted lower.

Support sits at $57.68, where price has reacted several times. A clean break below this level opens the door toward $57.12, the next major support. If buyers attempt a bounce, the descending trendline and $58.56 will act as barriers to any recovery.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is trading near $61.85, pulling back after another rejection from the descending trendline that has capped upside since last week. Price remains below the 20-EMA and 50-EMA on the 2-hour chart, keeping short-term pressure tilted lower. Candlesticks show repeated failures around $62.67, confirming it as strong resistance.

If sellers maintain control, support sits at $61.60, followed by $61.30, which aligns with prior reaction lows. A break under these levels opens room toward $60.98 and $60.52. The RSI is soft and trending below mid-levels, signaling limited buying strength. If Brent attempts a rebound, the descending trendline and $62.67 will be the first barriers bulls must reclaim to shift momentum.

Source: fxempire

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