Philippines Struggles to Regain Chinese Tourists Amidst Regional Competition

Summary:

Despite its famed beaches and cultural attractions, the Philippines has only recovered a fraction of its pre-pandemic Chinese tourist arrivals, facing stiff regional competition and airline capacity issues as it attempts to rebuild its tourism sector....

Slow recovery in a highly competitive regional landscape

Once among the top destinations for Chinese tourists, the Philippines is now lagging behind other Southeast Asian nations in its post-pandemic recovery efforts. In 2019, the country welcomed over 1.7 million Chinese visitors, making China its second-largest inbound tourism market after South Korea. However, as of December 20, 2025, only 262,000 Chinese tourists had returned barely 15% of the pre-pandemic figure.

This sharp decline is particularly concerning as neighboring countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, have managed to revive their Chinese inbound tourism sectors at a much faster pace. Vietnam has attracted around 4.8 million Chinese tourists so far this year, while Thailand has welcomed approximately 4.36 million. Singapore also saw nearly 3 million Chinese arrivals by November 2025. In contrast, the Philippines currently ranks sixth among China’s outbound destinations in Southeast Asia, signaling a weakened position in the regional tourism market.

The disparity in recovery rates is not solely a result of consumer preference but reflects varying levels of policy readiness, airline capacity, and perceived safety and convenience. This suggests a combination of both correlative and causal factors influencing tourist flows.

Policy shifts and e-visa reinstatement

In response to the sluggish tourist return, the Philippines resumed its electronic visa (e-visa) system for Chinese travelers in November, following a two-year suspension. According to tourism attaché Ireneo Reyes, the reactivation of e-visas sends a “clear signal” that the country is open, ready, and eager to welcome Chinese tourists once again.

This policy shift is a deliberate attempt to remove friction in the travel process and reflects a causal strategy aimed at directly increasing arrival numbers. However, the limited immediate impact suggests that procedural reforms alone are insufficient unless paired with broader structural adjustments.

Flight capacity bottlenecks and connectivity gaps

Another major factor hampering recovery is the restricted flight capacity between China and the Philippines. Current air connectivity remains at just 45% of pre-COVID levels. With fewer direct flights and limited scheduling options, the Philippines appears less accessible than competitors in the region, which have rapidly restored or even expanded their air links with Chinese cities.

The limited flight availability acts as both a logistical and psychological barrier to travel. It directly reduces the volume of possible visitors and indirectly affects perceptions of convenience and reliability both of which are crucial in a competitive regional tourism market. Thus, there is a clear causal relationship between airline capacity and tourism volume.

Tourism’s critical economic role and the urgency of revival

Tourism remains a vital pillar of the Philippine economy. According to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, tourism contributed 13.2% to the country’s GDP in the previous year and employed roughly 13.8% of the national workforce. Given these figures, the underperformance in key source markets such as China poses a significant economic risk.

Rebuilding tourism connections with China is not merely about numbers it is central to sustaining employment, regional development, and foreign exchange earnings. The ongoing delays in recovery, therefore, carry broader macroeconomic implications, especially in light of the global economic uncertainty and shifting travel patterns.

The Philippines faces a formidable challenge in reviving its Chinese tourist market amidst fierce regional competition. Although measures such as the reinstatement of e-visas and efforts to restore flight capacity are underway, their impact remains limited so far. Without more coordinated and large-scale actions to restore confidence and convenience for Chinese travelers, the Philippines risks falling further behind its Southeast Asian peers with potential consequences for both its tourism sector and broader economic stability.

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