Starmer's Trump Gamble: Is the UK-US Alliance Failing?

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a defining test of his foreign policy as Donald Trump’s latest threats challenge the core of the transatlantic alliance. While some called for a dramatic rebuke, Starmer used a Monday press conference to defend his strategy of relentless diplomacy, even as it appears to be faltering.

Trump was "completely wrong" to threaten tariffs over his ambition to purchase Greenland, Starmer stated, but he stressed that Britain's relationship with America "matters profoundly." The Prime Minister affirmed his determination to keep the US-UK partnership strong, just as it was under previous presidents.

However, with Trump escalating his trade war on Europe, Starmer's "pragmatic, sensible" approach is being pushed to its limits.

"We're at a critical point now where whether or not Starmer's diplomacy has worked is going to be revealed in the next days, weeks at most," said Sam Edwards, a historian at Loughborough University specializing in US-UK relations.

The Strategy: Keeping Trump Close

Like his predecessors, Starmer has tried to leverage the "special relationship" to manage an unpredictable US president. This approach is best symbolized by the Prime Minister brandishing an invitation from King Charles III for an unprecedented second state visit, which delighted Trump. Other European leaders have employed similar tactics, notably NATO chief Mark Rutte, who referred to the president as "daddy."

This strategy has yielded some benefits. Starmer reportedly helped mend ties after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's heated exchange with Trump in the Oval Office. More recently, the US seemed to align more closely with Europe on Ukraine, suggesting robust security guarantees for Kyiv during a joint press conference in Paris.

Government officials argue that while it's impossible to prove a counter-factual, these diplomatic efforts may have averted far worse outcomes.

A Record of Unmet Expectations

Despite small victories, the ledger shows a growing list of disappointments. Trump’s new tariff threat over Greenland—starting at 10% next month and rising to 25% by June if a deal isn't reached—is just the latest setback.

Key areas where the diplomatic approach has fallen short include:

• Ukraine: The country continues to fight through a harsh winter with only limited pressure applied to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Trade Deal: The much-hyped UK-US trade agreement has stalled.

• Steel Tariffs: 25% tariffs on British steel exports remain in place, despite a US agreement last May to remove them.

• Tech Deal: A major technology agreement with the US is on ice, with UK officials telling their American counterparts they will not compromise on key standards.

Even the most dedicated Atlanticist must now question if Starmer’s efforts are paying off.

The Reality of UK Dependence

The Prime Minister made it clear that Britain is not in a position to sever ties with the United States, citing both national security and economic realities.

Security and Intelligence Ties

The UK has been a major beneficiary of its close defense relationship with the US and would be highly exposed by a split. Officials highlight the deeply interconnected military, nuclear, and intelligence partnerships that they say make the UK the most secure nation in Europe. Replicating these capabilities domestically would be impossible or take years, creating an unacceptable security vacuum.

"Our cooperation on defense, nuclear capability, and intelligence remains as close and effective as anywhere in the world—keeping Britain safe in an increasingly dangerous environment," Starmer said.

Britain remains the junior partner in this arrangement and would suffer more if it fractured.

Post-Brexit Economic Vulnerability

Since leaving the European Union, the UK economy is more exposed to global trade conflicts. Outside the trading bloc, Britain has diminished leverage in negotiations with the US and no guarantee of securing favorable terms with Europe. This reality was on display as Starmer effectively ruled out retaliatory tariffs against the US, drawing a clear distinction from the EU's potential response.

"Unfortunately we just don't have that much control," noted Olivia O'Sullivan, Director of Chatham House's UK in the World Program. "Most important is that we start thinking long-term about how we manage the risk that the US continues to use our economic and security relationship in this way."

An Uncertain Path Forward

This situation leaves Britain vulnerable to the old accusation of being a "vassal state" to the US, a dependency that has only deepened after Brexit.

Starmer faces pressure to pivot, either by significantly increasing defense spending beyond his target of 2.6% of GDP by next year or by forging a closer relationship with the EU, perhaps through a customs union.

For now, there is little indication of a major policy shift. Starmer is sticking to his diplomatic course, dismissing "performative" anger and "grandstanding" on social media as ineffective. Amid the changing international climate, the government made a late decision to send Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to the World Economic Forum in Davos, a meeting the Prime Minister had not planned to attend.

Starmer insists that patient negotiation is superior to public confrontation. The problem, however, is that right now, diplomacy isn't looking very effective either.