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Stock market's roaring rally to record highs could hit pause
Summary:
Despite raised S&P 500 targets, Wall Street strategists expect market gains to stall in H2 2025 amid tariff uncertainty, weak catalysts, and slowing earnings, with forecasts pointing to flat or choppy performance.
A number of Wall Street firms are raising their S&P 500 (^GSPC) targets as initial investor panic from President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs continues to subside — but that doesn't mean strategists are expecting a solid run higher for stocks in the second half of the year.
In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. But the firm's head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, explained that the adjustment comes amid the market's more than 25% bounce back from April lows, reached when Trump announced a wide array of higher-than-expected tariffs on goods from various countries. Those tariffs were delayed, and the US is now in the process of negotiating them.
RBC is now essentially moving its target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. In fact, a target of 6,250 means the benchmark index would end the year mostly flat from its closing price last week, when it notched a fresh record.
"We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Calvasina wrote. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions."
Calvasina noted that, among other risks, it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings.
Overall, eight strategists among the 14 tracked by Yahoo Finance currently project the S&P 500 to close either nearly flat from current levels or lower. Even those who predict an increase aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue in the short term.
Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shaped recovery for stocks could soon look more like a "square root shaped pattern," where the path higher stalls.
Yardeni pointed out that his team had expected Trump to relent on his tariff back-and-forth by now. But that is not happening. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. The latest tariff actions follow a 35% tariff on Canadian goods announced last week.
Yardeni believes his 6,500 target could still be reached by year end, but added, "Trump must get the tariff issue resolved in coming weeks."
Last week, Bank of America's equity strategy team led by Savita Subramanian also recently moved its year-end target, boosting its call to 6,300 from a prior forecast of 5,600.
"It's hard to identify a positive catalyst for the S&P 500 to continue its meteoric run into Q3," Subramanian wrote. "Among our five target models, our earnings per share surprise framework represents our near-term read and is mixed, at best. Negative guidance and revisions in April/May have improved to average levels but economic surprises have broken down. And the meat of corporate profits, tech company earnings, are slated to decelerate."
source : finance.yahoo
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