Strategic Public Investment Surge to Power Vietnam’s Growth Engine in 2025–2026

Summary:

Vietnam’s government is accelerating the disbursement of over VND 400 trillion in public investment during the final two months of 2025, aiming to catalyze private sector momentum...

Government Capital Injection to Spur a Multi-Sectoral Economic Rebound

In the closing stretch of 2025, Vietnam is preparing a decisive deployment of over VND 400 trillion in public investment to reignite economic momentum. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of October 23, 2025, only VND 464.8 trillion or 51.7% of the year’s total capital plan had been disbursed. This indicates that nearly half of the planned investment remains untapped, presenting a substantial opportunity for late-year economic acceleration.

At the Ministry of Construction, disbursement progress stands at roughly 51%, equivalent to just over VND 40.9 trillion. In response, Minister Trần Hồng Minh has instructed project owners to expand professional staffing, streamline administrative bottlenecks, and treat fund deployment not as a bureaucratic procedure but as a national priority.

This urgency is underscored by a government mandate for five major expressway segments including Biên Hòa–Vũng Tàu and Cần Thơ–Hậu Giang to be operational by December 19, 2025. In tandem, seven strategic projects, such as the Lào Cai–Hà Nội–Hải Phòng railway and the Thần Vũ and Núi Vung tunnels, are compelled to commence before year-end despite earlier delays. The Vietnam Securities Company MBS has flagged the time constraint as significant, noting that with only two months left, the remaining VND 400 trillion creates immense pressure to disburse efficiently and effectively.

Public Investment as a Catalyst for Private Capital and FDI Inflows

Beyond short-term stimulus, the public investment wave is expected to have broader structural effects. Analysts emphasize that public spending will serve as foundational capital, enticing both private sector investment and foreign direct investment into alignment. As major infrastructure projects transition from feasibility studies into preparatory phases such as the North-South High-Speed Railway and the Lào Cai–Hà Nội–Hải Phòng corridor the role of the government becomes central to shaping economic direction.

According to Bùi Nguyên Khoa, Deputy Director of BSC Research, the decentralization and empowerment in project management have accelerated decision-making, allowing greater local flexibility and responsiveness. These governance reforms enable faster implementation of large-scale infrastructure, which is critical for fostering inclusive national development.

The government’s objective is to finalize 3,000 kilometers of expressways and more than 1,000 kilometers of coastal roads in 2025. Dr. Nguyễn Tú Anh of VinUni argues that public investment no longer merely stimulates demand it acts as a structural anchor around which other capital flows orbit. When macroeconomic stability is coupled with consistent FDI inflows, infrastructure becomes a central node in a multi-tiered growth model. He further suggests that capital demands from infrastructure could prompt a resurgence in bank liquidity and credit expansion.

Infrastructure-Led Growth Triggers Sectoral Chain Reactions

A sharp rise in Q4 disbursements is anticipated to ignite rapid growth in construction-related industries. Firms engaged in infrastructure such as HHV, FCN, VCG, and C4G are projected to benefit from increased workloads and fund allocations. At the same time, building material companies like HPG, HSG, PLC, and KSB are expected to witness dual gains: rising demand from new projects alongside relatively stable input costs.

While the banking sector may not see immediate volume spikes, analysts point to its indirect gains. As public capital circulates back into the banking system, liquidity tightness may ease, thereby facilitating a stronger credit cycle into year-end.

However, not all real estate sectors are poised for recovery. While improved infrastructure raises expectations for housing demand, analysts caution that growth will likely concentrate in segments tied closely to urban centers, transit corridors, and integrated industrial-urban zones. Peripheral land, speculative plots, and stalled tourism projects are less likely to benefit.

Trade, FDI, and Consumption Gain Renewed Momentum

Vietnam's global trade outlook also appears resilient. Agriseco forecasts a 17% increase in international trade in 2025 despite global protectionist pressures. This reflects Vietnam’s embeddedness in global supply chains, where total import-export turnover could reach a record USD 900 billion.

FDI inflows are expected to remain strong following Vietnam’s reciprocal tax agreements with the United States, which pave the way for high-quality capital from Western investors. Targeted investment is likely to favor industrial parks, logistics, and export-oriented manufacturing sectors with long-term structural value.

Concurrently, recovering consumer demand is bolstering essential retail chains and sectors such as food and beverage, electronics, and household goods. With input costs declining, retailers are positioned to enjoy improved profit margins. Tourism, too, is rebounding as visitor volumes climb, supporting airlines, hospitality, and travel services.

Macroeconomic Pressures May Complicate Outlook

Despite this optimistic trajectory, risks remain. A weakening Vietnamese đồng against major currencies, coupled with rising gold prices and inflationary pressures, could constrain monetary policy flexibility. This, in turn, may affect both credit expansion and the stock market’s ability to attract fresh capital.

If inflation expectations rise too sharply, the State Bank of Vietnam may be forced to reconsider accommodative stances, potentially blunting the momentum gained from public investment. Moreover, volatile commodity markets and exchange rate fluctuations could erode investor confidence if not properly managed.

A Delicate Balance Between Momentum and Caution

Vietnam’s late-2025 public investment surge signals a strong political will to revive growth. The government’s strategic use of public funds as leverage to activate private and foreign capital presents a promising path for sustained recovery. However, success will hinge not only on rapid disbursement but also on maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring that the investment flows into productive, high-impact sectors.

As 2025 transitions into 2026, the Vietnamese economy finds itself at a crossroads: with policy clarity, infrastructure execution, and capital synergy, it could accelerate into a new growth phase. Without such alignment, however, the risk of inefficient allocation and monetary tightening could dilute the intended stimulus.

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