Trump's Venezuelan Oil Gamble: A Global Climate Risk

President Trump's administration is exploring a plan to revive Venezuela's dormant oil industry, a move that could unlock vast crude reserves but has triggered serious warnings from climate scientists and environmental experts. Following U.S. intervention in the South American nation in early January, the focus has shifted to exploiting its oil wealth, raising questions about the severe environmental consequences.

Venezuela sits on an estimated 300 billion barrels of oil, the largest proven reserves in the world. However, years of mismanagement and a lack of investment have crippled its production capabilities. Restoring the industry to its former strength would require billions of dollars and more than a decade of work.

The Carbon Cost of "Dirty" Venezuelan Crude

The primary environmental concern stems from the nature of Venezuelan oil itself. The country's crude is predominantly extra-heavy and sour, with a tar-like consistency and high sulfur content. This makes its extraction and refining processes incredibly carbon-intensive, earning it the label of the world's "dirtiest" oil—a stark contrast to the light, sweet crude from countries like Saudi Arabia.

A study by S&P Global Platts Analytics highlights the extreme carbon footprint of Venezuelan oil. It found that deposits in the Orinoco Belt have a carbon intensity roughly 1,000 times higher than crude produced from Norway's Johan Sverdrup field. Investing in the expansion of this production would directly undermine global decarbonization goals.

Draining the World's Carbon Budget

The potential climate impact is staggering. According to a new analysis from carbon accounting firm ClimatePartner, a U.S.-led expansion of Venezuelan oil production could consume more than 10% of the world's entire remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

ClimatePartner's model was based on a projected output increase of 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, rising by 1.58 million bpd between 2035 and 2050. Even at these levels, production would remain below Venezuela's peak of 3.5 million bpd in the 1990s.

Trump's Push for a $100 Billion Oil Revival

President Trump has been actively encouraging U.S. oil companies to commit $100 billion to jump-start Venezuela's oil sector. "We're going to be extracting numbers in terms of oil like few people have seen," he stated, adding that he expects U.S. operations to be "up and running" within 18 months.

The administration's plan involves selling between 30 and 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil on the global market. Officials have noted that the revenues would be held in U.S.-controlled accounts, benefiting both nations.

Reality Check: Venezuela's Crumbling Infrastructure

Despite the administration's ambitious timeline, energy experts are skeptical that a rapid production increase is feasible. The country's energy infrastructure is in a state of extreme disrepair.

Paasha Mahdavi, an associate professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, described the dire situation: "You've got storage facilities literally sinking into the ground, broken wellheads and degraded infrastructure across the board."

This decay already poses significant environmental hazards. Energy-intensive processing plants, which need heat, chemicals, and vast amounts of water, threaten Venezuela's fragile river systems. Several waterways have suffered severe pollution in recent years, a problem that persists even with diminished oil output due to poorly maintained equipment.

Can US Investment Clean Up Venezuela's Oil Mess?

Venezuela's oil industry already has one of the worst environmental and safety records globally. The Venezuelan Political Ecology Observatory documented nearly 200 oil spills between 2016 and 2021, many of which were never reported by authorities.

Furthermore, a 2025 report from the International Energy Agency revealed that the industry's methane emissions intensity was alarmingly high. Upstream methane emissions were around six percent of the world's average, while gas flaring levels were approximately 10 times the global average.

In response to these concerns, the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) issued a statement claiming that American firms investing in Venezuela would adhere to the "highest environmental standards." The DoE added, "As American investment in Venezuela increases, you can expect environmental conditions to improve."

However, these assurances are undermined by the Trump administration's own track record of disregarding environmental regulations, casting doubt on the likelihood of a clean-up. If the plan moves forward, it threatens not only Venezuela's local environment—its water, forests, and wildlife—but also represents a significant setback for the global fight against climate change.