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A Corrective Move Looms as EURAUD Hits Resistance
Summary:
If this level holds firm and is not decisively breached, a new downward impulse could initiate from this zone.
CLOSED
1.79310
ENTRY
1.77650
TGT
1.80400
SL
-- -- --
1090
Points
Loss
1.77650
TGT
1.80400
CLOSING
1.79310
ENTRY
1.80400
SL
Eurozone economic data shows that Industrial Production fell by 1.2% in August compared to the previous month, reversing a 0.3% rise in July, though it registered a 1.1% increase year-on-year according to Eurostat. Meanwhile, inflation figures remain mixed: French inflation met expectations by staying below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, while Spanish prices surged to 3% in September, significantly above the target.
Key ECB officials offered commentary on the outlook. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that the German economy is improving, while Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau echoed a slightly positive sentiment, noting that the global economy remains surprisingly resilient. Villeroy also cautioned that France cannot afford to be fixated on short-term fiscal challenges and must find credible solutions to reduce its deficit.
Adding to the political uncertainty, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's decision to suspend the 2023 pension reform until after the 2027 presidential elections has created ripples across the Eurozone. While intended to alleviate long-standing social tensions, the move has fueled concerns about the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline.
Attention now turns to Australia, where the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to report that the country added 17,000 new jobs for the month. The Unemployment Rate is forecasted to edge up slightly to 4.3% from August’s figure, with the Participation Rate anticipated to hold steady at 66.8%.
The ABS details both full-time and part-time employment in its monthly report. Full-time jobs, generally requiring 38 or more hours per week, are economically preferred as they typically include more benefits and offer consistent income. In contrast, part-time employment often means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. Notably, in August, Australia lost 40,900 full-time jobs while creating 35,500 part-time positions, highlighting a structural softening in the labor market.
Ahead of the release, financial markets are balancing monetary policy decisions with political developments. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% in late September, citing "signs that private demand is picking up, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas, and generally stable labor market conditions," according to the Board's statement.
Technical Analysis
EUR/AUD recently experienced a notable upward push, with the momentum stalling at the 1.7931 resistance level. Although the pair briefly touched a local high of 1.7961, it quickly retreated back below this key resistance. If this level holds firm and is not decisively breached, a new downward impulse could initiate from this zone.
The potential downside target lies at the next support area around 1.7765. This zone is reinforced by a confluence of the 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart, located at 1.7778 and 1.7781, respectively. This alignment makes the area a high-probability zone for a bearish retracement to find a floor.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 74 level, clearly placing the pair in overbought territory. This technical reading significantly increases the probability of an imminent corrective move lower. Currently, the price has failed to make a new higher high. If the resistance zone is overcome, it would signal a new bullish leg. However, if we see a sustained rejection from the current resistance, the corrective move is likely to target the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement level, a critical area for pullbacks, where it could find support before potentially resuming its long-term upward trend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.7931
Target price: 1.7765
Stop loss: 1.8040
Validity: Oct 24, 2025 15:00:00
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