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Technical Oversold Bounce Ready to Ignite Fresh Bullish Impulse
Summary:
If the support level located at 0.6462 is successfully defended, the pair could initiate a fresh upward impulse toward the next resistance level at 0.6624.
Trading
0.64945
ENTRY
0.66240
TGT
0.64300
SL
0.65150 +0.00028 +0.04%
0
Point
Flat
0.64300
SL
CLOSING
0.64945
ENTRY
0.66240
TGT
Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its September 30th meeting, revealing a unanimous decision by the Board to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%. The policymakers noted that inflation in the services and housing sectors could be higher than anticipated in the third quarter, issuing a warning that persistent domestic price pressure remains a concern even as overall economic growth moderates.
Board members indicated that current monetary policy is "likely still somewhat restrictive" and reiterated that future rate adjustments will remain data-dependent and cautious. The RBA also highlighted an increase in credit and housing prices, signaling that the cumulative effect of previous rate cuts is still filtering through the economy.
In the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a subtly neutral posture during his speech in Philadelphia on Tuesday, suggesting the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." He reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to a meeting-by-meeting approach for setting interest rates, emphasizing flexibility.
Market expectations for rate cuts remain extremely high. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 97% probability of another 25-basis-point (bp) cut at the October 29th-30th meeting, closely followed by a 96% probability of a similar move in December.
Further reinforcing the dovish outlook, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated on Tuesday that increasing risks to the job market bolster the case for additional central bank rate reductions in the current uncertain environment. Collins reasoned that, “With inflation risks somewhat more contained, but greater downside risks to employment, it seems prudent to normalize policy a bit further this year to support the labor market.” She concluded that even after more cuts, policy would remain "mildly restrictive," which is necessary to ensure inflation continues its decline once tariff effects dissipate.
Adding to the mixed economic picture, the NFIB Business Optimism Index unexpectedly fell 2 points to 98.8 last month, its first decline in three months. Concurrently, the NFIB Uncertainty Index surged 7 points to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years, highlighting deep apprehension among small businesses. Meanwhile, the Fed is set to receive a crucial update on consumer inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 24th, despite the ongoing government shutdown.
Global trade friction continues to escalate. China imposed new port tariffs on U.S.-linked vessels, directly reciprocating Washington’s earlier action against Chinese ships. This follows President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1st, which was prompted by Beijing tightening its export controls on rare earth elements. U.S. Trade Representative Greer heightened tensions by warning that tariffs "could come sooner" and that Washington "has export controls it can impose if necessary," keeping investors nervous about a full-blown trade war.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD hit a low of 0.6440 on October 14th, a level not seen since the strong upward impulse experienced on August 22nd. This recent rebound from those lows, coupled with the failure to establish a new lower low, suggests that bullish participants remain actively engaged. If the support level located at 0.6462 is successfully defended, the pair could initiate a fresh upward impulse toward the next resistance level at 0.6624.
The 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart, currently at 0.6573 and 0.6583 respectively, have acted dynamically with the recent price action. A successful move higher is likely to see the price recapture these moving average levels. Crucially, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached a low of 25.98, demonstrating a clear oversold condition. This rapid move into oversold territory aligns with the case for initiating long positions, as a technical correction or reversal is highly probable. Conversely, the current bullish setup would be invalidated if the price closes decisively below the local low recently reached, which would open the door for a much deeper corrective move lower.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.6494
Target price: 0.6624
Stop loss: 0.6430
Validity: Oct 24, 2025 15:00:00
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