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Australian Dollar Extends Winning Streak: Eyes on Retail Sales Amid RBA Overhaul
Summary:
The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its winning streak against the US dollar (USD), showcasing a remarkable 3.8% gain since November 14th. As the currency maintains its upward trajectory, market attention turns to crucial economic indicators and developments within the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
CLOSED
0.66000
ENTRY
0.66500
TGT
0.65000
SL
0.64077 +0.00086 +0.13%
500
Points
Profit
0.65000
SL
0.66501
CLOSING
0.66000
ENTRY
0.66500
TGT
The Australian dollar continues its impressive rally against the US dollar, gaining 3.8% since November 14th. With a focus on the upcoming retail sales data for October, expectations are set at a modest 0.1% growth compared to the robust 0.9% gain in September. The retail sales figure could influence market sentiment towards the Aussie, especially after the Reserve Bank of Australia's recent decision to raise rates. Additionally, the RBA is undergoing significant changes, with the Australian government introducing legislation following an independent review. RBA Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming speech and insights into the central bank's plans add further intrigue to the Australian dollar's trajectory. Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for AUD/USD, with key resistance levels and strategic entry points discussed.
The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its winning streak against the US dollar (USD), showcasing a remarkable 3.8% gain since November 14th. As the currency maintains its upward trajectory, market attention turns to crucial economic indicators and developments within the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
An impending event on the economic calendar is the release of Australian retail sales data for October. Analysts anticipate a more subdued growth rate of 0.1%, a notable decline from the robust 0.9% gain recorded in September. The September figure, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending, played a role in supporting the RBA's decision to raise interest rates at the November meeting. Investors closely watch this release, as a deviation from the expected retail sales figure could influence sentiment towards the Australian dollar. Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak in Hong Kong on Tuesday, providing a potential glimpse into the central bank's plans leading up to its meeting on December 5th.
However, the Australian financial landscape is undergoing significant changes. Following an independent review, the Australian government has announced legislation aimed at overhauling the RBA. This move follows criticism of the RBA's earlier commitment not to raise rates until 2024, only to subsequently embark on a tightening campaign that has elevated the cash rate to 4.35%. The RBA's new Governor, Michele Bullock, has expressed support for these sweeping changes.
In a recent statement, Governor Bullock indicated that inflation had peaked, with upside risks being domestically driven. Despite inflation receding from 8.0% to 5.5% in less than a year, she emphasized the prolonged timeline for inflation to decrease further to 3%. The RBA's target inflation range is 2%-3%. Remaining hawkish, the RBA raised rates earlier this month after keeping them steady for four consecutive meetings.
Turning to technical analysis, the AUD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.6618, with additional barriers at 0.6650. Key support levels are identified at 0.6559 and 0.6526. The market's recent bullish momentum is underlined by a successful retest of the breakout above the range zone resistance at 0.6523, confirming the strength of the newfound support. Traders are strategically considering buying market dips to capitalize on anticipated upward movements.
In conclusion, the Australian dollar's upward trajectory, coupled with pivotal economic data and the ongoing transformation within the RBA, creates a dynamic landscape for traders and investors. The retail sales release and Governor Bullock's insights hold the potential to shape market sentiment, adding layers of complexity to the Australian dollar's recent gains.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY AUDUSD
ENTRY PRICE : 0.6600
STOP LOSS :0.6500
TAKE PROFIT : 0.6650
EXP : 11/12/23
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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