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Awaiting Stabilization Signals as Entry Window Nears for Bulls
Summary:
Oil prices undergo a sharp correction from recent highs; downside remains limited amid robust supply-demand fundamentals.
Trading
87.312
ENTRY
107.500
TGT
77.000
SL
86.852 -0.813 -0.93%
0
Point
Flat
77.000
SL
CLOSING
87.312
ENTRY
107.500
TGT
Fundamentals
The core driving logic of the current international crude market remains tethered to developments in Middle East geopolitics. Since the transit disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude supply side has suffered a substantive contraction. Although short-term speculative pricing regarding a potential de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict has driven a rapid correction in oil prices, the core contradiction of supply contraction has not fundamentally altered. Currently, global crude inventories remain in a persistent downtream channel. US commercial crude stockpiles alone have declined sharply for four consecutive weeks, with inventories at the Cushing delivery hub hovering near historic lows. Concurrently, global oil demand has not shown any material destruction; instead, the supply-demand imbalance continues to brew.
From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the tight supply-demand fundamentals have already forged a hard floor for oil prices. Even if sentiment-driven pullbacks occur in the short term, the magnitude of any downward adjustment will be continuously cushioned by these fundamentals. Going forward, the market focus will remain locked on two key factors: first, the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations, and second, the restoration status of shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Any recurring geopolitical friction will swiftly propel oil prices back onto an upward trajectory.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude crude dipped below the key 86-dollar psychological handle this week, remaining broadly confined within a range-bound consolidation pattern, with the larger-degree trend yet to carve out a definitive direction.
From a short-cycle technical structure, oil prices are currently sitting within a dual-support zone comprised of the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle and the bottom of a rectangular consolidation range. Following its previous rejection and pullback from the core resistance at 105 dollars, price action has now entered the terminal stage of this consolidation and is currently testing the validity of this multi-confluence support area.
Bullish Outlook: If oil prices can successfully stabilize within the current support zone, WTI will accumulate bullish momentum at these lower levels post-consolidation, positioning it for a retest of the previous resistance at 105 dollars. Serving as the primary line in the sand between bulls and bears over the past several weeks, an effective breakout above this level would allow bulls to regain absolute control of market rhythm and unlock a new leg higher.
Bearish Risks: Conversely, if oil prices ultimately register a valid break below this confluence support zone, the existing equilibrium will be thoroughly shattered. The market would then transition into a larger-degree corrective cycle, where the next major support level would look toward the 79-dollar vicinity.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 84.62
Target Price: 107.50
Stop Loss: 77.00
Validity Until: 2026-06-28 23:55
Support Levels: 84.00, 79.86, 79.00
Resistance Levels: 88.72, 92.73, 95.01
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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