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Uptrend May Resume After Short-Term Pullback, 161.20 Remains the Key Target
Summary:
USDJPY continues to maintain a strong consolidation structure. Although the pair may experience a short-term technical correction, the broader trend remains intact, and the market could retest the key resistance area around 161.20 once the adjustment phase is completed.
PENDING
159.000
ENTRY
161.200
TGT
157.900
SL
159.374 +0.121 +0.08%
--
Point
PENDING
157.900
SL
CLOSING
159.000
ENTRY
161.200
TGT
Fundamentals
USDJPY has recently remained elevated within a high trading range, with the broader market still supported by the divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy. In the United States, the high interest rate environment remains firmly in place, while U.S. Treasury yields continue to show relative strength. Meanwhile, although the Bank of Japan has gradually signaled policy normalization, the pace of actual rate hikes remains slow, limiting sustained support for the Japanese yen.
At the same time, verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance has temporarily slowed the pace of USDJPY appreciation. However, without a meaningful shift in monetary policy, the broader market still favors a “buy the dollar on dips” strategy.
From a positioning perspective, there are currently no clear signs of large-scale bullish liquidation. Recent weakness appears more consistent with short-term profit-taking following an extended rally rather than a structural trend reversal. As long as key support zones remain intact, the broader bullish trend is likely to continue.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY is currently trading around 159.45, with the broader structure still maintaining a clear upward trend. In the short term, technical indicators have entered overbought territory following the recent rally, increasing the probability of a temporary correction. However, any pullback is more likely to be viewed as a healthy trend consolidation rather than a reversal.
The key downside support zone is located between 158.60 and 158.20. As long as price remains above this region, the bullish structure should stay intact. Once the correction phase is completed and price reclaims the 160.00 level, the market could reopen further upside potential toward the 161.20 target area.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that levels above 161.00 remain highly sensitive for Japanese authorities. If the pair rises too aggressively, the possibility of renewed verbal or even direct intervention cannot be ruled out. Therefore, short-term volatility is expected to remain elevated.
Trade Recommendation
Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 159.00
Target Price: 161.20
Stop Loss: 157.90
Valid Until: 2026-06-27 23:55
Support Levels: 158.60, 158.20, 157.50
Resistance Levels: 160.00, 160.80, 161.20
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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