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      BOJ Rate Hike Confirmed, Dovish Tone Drives Bulls to Break Through the 210.00 Level

      Forex
      Summary:

      The GBPJPY pair has been further propelled above the 210.00 mark, buoyed by the anticipated 25 basis points rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

      Buy GBPJPY
      EXP
      Trading

      210.551

      ENTRY

      215.750

      TGT

      208.000

      SL

      -- -- --

      0

      Point

      Flat

      208.000

      SL

      CLOSING

      210.551

      ENTRY

      215.750

      TGT

      Fundamentals

      During the European session on Friday, the GBPJPY pair once again attracted buying interest, preventing a pullback from the level slightly above the 209.00 mark (a new high since August 2008) seen at the end of the previous trading day. After the highly anticipated Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision was announced, the spot price maintained its strong intra-day gains, breaking through the 210.00 mark with a 1% increase on the day.
      As widely expected by the market, the BOJ raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking another step forward in its gradual normalization process. Despite the rate hike, the BOJ emphasized that financial conditions remain highly accommodative and real interest rates are still "significantly negative".
      In its statement, the BOJ reiterated its tightening policy bias. The central bank indicated that it would "continue to raise the policy interest rate" if the outlook depicted in the October 2025 "Outlook Report" is realized. Policymakers also expressed that they are "increasingly confident" about the likelihood of achieving this outlook.
      At the post-meeting press conference, Kazuo Ueda stressed that future adjustments will depend on the latest data regarding the economy, prices, and financial conditions, with policy decisions being reassessed at each meeting rather than following a preset path. Regarding the neutral interest rate, Ueda acknowledged significant uncertainty. He stated that the current estimate is within a wide range and they will assess the economy's and prices' response to each interest rate change. "If necessary, we will attempt to make a new estimate of Japan's neutral interest rate, but I don't think it will help us narrow the range significantly," he added. So far, market participants are not entirely convinced by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks. Ueda remains skeptical about the possibility of another "counterattack" by the Japanese government. The BOJ has won the first round today, but the threshold for the next rate hike will be higher than this time. Ueda has left the door open for it, but he hasn't been overly firm or explicit about really wanting to stick to another rate hike in March. For now, "data dependency" seems to be the best information they can offer.
      BOJ Rate Hike Confirmed, Dovish Tone Drives Bulls to Break Through the 210.00 Level_1

      Technical Analysis

      The GBPJPY pair has resumed its upward trend after breaking through 208.92, with intra-day movements heading back in an upward direction. The next target is 211.98, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 199.04 to 205.30 range. On the downside, if the support at 207.94 is breached, intra-day movements will turn to a sideways consolidation.

      Trade Recommendations

      Trade Direction: Buy
      Entry Price: 210.00
      Target Price: 215.75
      Stop Loss: 208.00
      Valid Until: 05 Jan 2026, 23:55:00
      Support: 209.81/209.29/208.21
      Resistance Levels: 211.98/212.82/215.10
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analysts

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

      Rank

      5

      Articless

      2145

      Win Rate

      58.62%

      P/L Ratio

      0.63

      Focus on

      XAUUSD, WTI, GBPUSD

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