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Rate Cut Priced In, Vote Split Becomes Sterling’s Key Variable
Summary:
If the Bank of England (BoE) delivers the expected 25 bp rate cut but signals greater caution on further easing than the market anticipates, sterling is likely to rally. Such a hawkish surprise would probably manifest as an exceptionally tight vote on any prospective reduction.
Trading
1.33968
ENTRY
1.36150
TGT
1.32400
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
1.32400
SL
CLOSING
1.33968
ENTRY
1.36150
TGT
Fundamentals
The consensus expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to resume its easing cycle, lowering Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 %. The move should be interpreted as a return to the BoE’s established quarterly cadence rather than a strategic pivot. Since mid-2024 the Bank has trimmed rates once per quarter; the November meeting was deferred only because of the Autumn Budget.
The salient questions now are (i) whether the easing cycle continues and (ii) how far it can ultimately run. The answer to the first is almost certainly “yes”; the second remains opaque. Headline inflation has cooled markedly but is still above target, keeping policymakers vigilant over the extent of further accommodation.
This week’s softer-than-expected employment and CPI prints may begin to erode the resistance of the MPC’s more hawkish cohort. That shift should be reflected in today’s vote. The baseline forecast is a 5-4 split in favour of a cut, but a 6-3 outcome is plausible. While such a margin would modestly weigh on the pound, speculative positioning is already markedly short GBP. Traders will scrutinise (a) whether any dissent favours unchanged policy and (b) whether a clear majority for easing emerges.
A lopsided vote would strengthen expectations of a follow-up cut in February. This would merely realign policy with the Bank’s quarterly easing schedule—coinciding with the first meeting of the quarter and the publication of fresh forecasts—rather than herald a more aggressive stance. In that scenario, investors would be forced to re-price the pace of the cycle, curbing dovish bets and possibly triggering a short-covering rally in sterling and gilt yields.
Technical Analysis
Intraday GBPUSD remains neutral, consolidating below 1.3455. On the upside, a sustained break above 1.3455 would extend the rebound from 1.3008; a decisive clearance of the 1.3470 resistance opens a retest of the 1.3787 high. Conversely, a daily close beneath the 55-day EMA (now 1.3295) would signal the rebound is complete; a fall through the 1.3008 support would revive the entire corrective structure from the 1.3787 peak.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.3310
Target Price: 1.3615
Stop Loss: 1.3240
Valid Until: January 3, 2026 23:55:00
Support: 1.3311/1.3288/1.3247
Resistance Levels: 1.3369/1.3456/1.3490
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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